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--The book talks about the 18th -20th century versions of all the problems we face now--currency devaluation, fiat currencies, and excessive borrowing. While th
by jboydyhacker 16y ago
--The book talks about the 18th -20th century versions of all the problems we face now--currency devaluation, fiat currencies, and excessive borrowing. While the book talks broadly about the last 800 years of "folly", most of the data is the last few hundred years or so simply because records were not as developed.
--It's really more of a statistical assay than it is a history book. There are several parts where they actually take a look at the history of the various defaults like a historian would and in my opinion these are the most valuable parts. By understanding the players and their motivations at a given point and time, you can apply the past to current events and somehow get a weighting of various probably outcomes for the current crisis. Instead, the book seems to focus on table after table and some of the data by its nature is going to be incomplete or incongruent.
--Just to add on to the point above-- while the genesis of every economic crisis is often novel, they usually end with the same kind of behaviors of fear and hording. Understanding how that unfolds in each crisis and how policy makers might prevent that behavior would be valuable to study. The most important parts of economics is "behavioral " economics. Understanding the wild spirits is half the battle.
---There is a lot of noise around these days about economists trying to be physicists with large econometric models trying to predict exactly what the economy is going to do. I remember my first stint as a government trade economist as we tried to use very complex models from the University of Maryland to predict the impact of trade agreements. I always thought this was all nonsense as human behavior is the ultimate driver and it's more akin to modeling the weather than how fast a bullet is going.
--While I love tables too, there were not a lot of good conclusions from the data. I wanted more hard and fast rules about when a crisis reaches a tipping point. In the end, despite mountains of data I don't feel like I was materially better armed to understand how a crisis will unfold after reading the book.
- jacobolus 16y ago> I wanted more hard and fast rules about when a crisis reaches a tipping point. I bet everyone wishes we had some of these. It’s not at all clear to me that hard and fast rules are possible, or if they were, that the widespread knowledge therof wouldn’t invalidate them by changing the society/market.