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It's all about the batteries and always has been. Hydrogen is ultimately the only thing that makes sense in the super-long term as a complete and total solution

It's all about the batteries and always has been. Hydrogen is ultimately the only thing that makes sense in the super-long term as a complete and total solution, providing the necessary energy density (given current knowledge), but something like lithium batteries might very well be a long-term stepping stone until then. We are pretty much already there. We just need a few megafactories to pump out those batteries on the cheap.

andygates 9y ago
In this market, at this time, hydrogen is Betamax and electric batteries are VHS. Technical quality doesn't matter if it's not available, and market penetration has a chicken/egg challenge.
mtgx 9y ago
And we'll have them. By 2025 global Li-Ion battery capacity should increase by about 10x. That should lower prices by at least 4x, which should make EVs very competitive on an upfront cost with gas-powered cars, and a no-brainer when you take into account maintenance and gas costs, too. EDIT: I'm also hoping that by 2025, the 100kWh battery capacity will be standard in pretty much all $15,000+ EVs. The reason I'm hoping and I'm not so sure it will happen is because Tesla itself has signaled that it's not in a hurry to pass the 100kWh battery capacity mark even with the more expensive Model S for now. My guess is it said that because it wants to put that extra money into buying more expensive self-driving equipment. Similarly, on the Model 3 it has already installed the self-driving hardware, even if the customer doesn't want to use it, so Tesla probably doesn't want to further expand those costs with larger capacity batteries for now. I'm not a fan of this plan because for one, I think self-driving cars will be in "beta" for a lot longer than expected anyway, and two, it will unnecessarily slow down the EV revolution by compromising on battery capacity to include expensive self-driving equipment. This wouldn't be a problem if it merely affected Tesla. Unfortunately, so far most of the other car makers have tended to "wait for permission" from Tesla before pushing the limits of their own EVs. They kept "one-upping" (laughably so) each other for years with an extra 5 mile range from a bottom of 70 mile range on their EVs, until Tesla said Model 3 would have over 200 miles. Even now there are a bunch of cars planned for 2018 with only 30-40 kWh batteries and about 120 mile real world range. I'm still optimistic for now, and I hope that now that most car maker have actually started taking EVs more seriously (we won't see the effects of that until 2021+ though), there will be a "megapixel-race" of sorts, but for battery capacity in the not too distant future. I want the EV makers to "go crazy" with 200kWh batteries, 300kWh, 400kWh, etc. Let the market decide what is the optimum battery size for passenger cars, for trucks, for semis, and so on.

andygates 9y ago

In this market, at this time, hydrogen is Betamax and electric batteries are VHS. Technical quality doesn't matter if it's not available, and market penetration has a chicken/egg challenge.

mtgx 9y ago

And we'll have them. By 2025 global Li-Ion battery capacity should increase by about 10x. That should lower prices by at least 4x, which should make EVs very competitive on an upfront cost with gas-powered cars, and a no-brainer when you take into account maintenance and gas costs, too. EDIT: I'm also hoping that by 2025, the 100kWh battery capacity will be standard in pretty much all $15,000+ EVs. The reason I'm hoping and I'm not so sure it will happen is because Tesla itself has signaled that it's not in a hurry to pass the 100kWh battery capacity mark even with the more expensive Model S for now. My guess is it said that because it wants to put that extra money into buying more expensive self-driving equipment. Similarly, on the Model 3 it has already installed the self-driving hardware, even if the customer doesn't want to use it, so Tesla probably doesn't want to further expand those costs with larger capacity batteries for now. I'm not a fan of this plan because for one, I think self-driving cars will be in "beta" for a lot longer than expected anyway, and two, it will unnecessarily slow down the EV revolution by compromising on battery capacity to include expensive self-driving equipment. This wouldn't be a problem if it merely affected Tesla. Unfortunately, so far most of the other car makers have tended to "wait for permission" from Tesla before pushing the limits of their own EVs. They kept "one-upping" (laughably so) each other for years with an extra 5 mile range from a bottom of 70 mile range on their EVs, until Tesla said Model 3 would have over 200 miles. Even now there are a bunch of cars planned for 2018 with only 30-40 kWh batteries and about 120 mile real world range. I'm still optimistic for now, and I hope that now that most car maker have actually started taking EVs more seriously (we won't see the effects of that until 2021+ though), there will be a "megapixel-race" of sorts, but for battery capacity in the not too distant future. I want the EV makers to "go crazy" with 200kWh batteries, 300kWh, 400kWh, etc. Let the market decide what is the optimum battery size for passenger cars, for trucks, for semis, and so on.