> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathe

> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. No it isn't. If I have some information about events that will occur over the next few months, my estimations will be different based on that knowledge, eg I know there is going to be an election in some neighboring country that will involve violence, so I think that the probability of being unable to ship overland through that country is low now, but high in a few months.