Doesn't this depend on whether the event can recur? Your math correctly assess the odds of a one time event, as one minus the odds of the event never occurring

Doesn't this depend on whether the event can recur? Your math correctly assess the odds of a one time event, as one minus the odds of the event never occurring. But if 5%/month is an expected frequency of a recurring event, then after 24 months we'd expect 1.2 occurrences. Yeah? edit: Their language is awfully sloppy, though. It's not a 60% chance in the next 12 months, it's .6 expected occurrences.