4 ms·
The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathema
by _benedict 9y ago
The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics.
Whether or not it is reasonable to compound such a messy probability is a whole other question, but the fact the training material could not do so correctly (on apparently its own terms) does not speak with great confidence for the practitioners trained upon it.
- cirgue 9y ago> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. No it isn't. If I have some information about events that will occur over the next few months, my estimations will be different based on that knowledge, eg I know there is going to be an election in some neighboring country that will involve violence, so I think that the probability of being unable to ship overland through that country is low now, but high in a few months.