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You may have knowledge that the probability falls to zero after that. This is messy intelligence not math. Assuming this is a math book is a cognitive bias you
by bane 9y ago
You may have knowledge that the probability falls to zero after that. This is messy intelligence not math. Assuming this is a math book is a cognitive bias you are bringing into the reading.
- _benedict 9y agoThe quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. Whether or not it is reasonable to compound such a messy probability is a whole other question, but the fact the training material could not do so correctly (on apparently its own terms) does not speak with great confidence for the practitioners trained upon it.
- cirgue 9y ago> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. No it isn't. If I have some information about events that will occur over the next few months, my estimations will be different based on that knowledge, eg I know there is going to be an election in some neighboring country that will involve violence, so I think that the probability of being unable to ship overland through that country is low now, but high in a few months.