6 ms·
Well that's going to be interesting. We're already reaching end of life for some of our older nuclear reactors, coal plants are closing as they are unable to co
by cjsuk 9y ago
Well that's going to be interesting. We're already reaching end of life for some of our older nuclear reactors, coal plants are closing as they are unable to comply with EU emissions regulations and we're basically propping the whole thing up with gas and coal. Every new infrastructure project in this space is a walking disaster of cost and chaos. And to add insult to injury we're doing a very stupid thing and bailing out of Europe which means it's going to cost more to import electricity.
So, what are we going to power our cars with? I'm betting I'm on a bicycle again in 2040. Perhaps "peak car ownership" is over.
And what are we going to do with all the petrol and diesel cars then? Bury them? Recycling them is more difficult than it looks.
- jomkr 9y agoI manage without a car, I have no intention of getting one again. For the few occasions I need one, I either borrow one from a friend or hire one. Granted I do live Bristol, a very cycling friendly city.
- cjsuk 9y agoI am in a similar situation albeit in suburban South-West London. I bought a car in 2006 and it's still hanging on but I have no intention of replacing it. It gets used as a shopping trolley mostly. Literally every use case it had historically is covered by online services now. There's barely even any point going to retail outlets these days as the probability of success is so low compared to online.
- ioneodns 9y agoYour story is atypical given that you live in an area that's a)difficult to drive in (lots of traffic, little parking), b)incredibly well-connected by about half a dozen public transport options. You shouldn't be making generalisations that no one needs a car anymore just because you don't.
- pjc50 9y agoUrban and suburban areas cover about 20m people, a third or so of the population.
- Swifty 9y agoso the minority of users, seeing as 2/3rd of the population don't live in a Urban and suburban area. I live in a Rural area in the UK, i have a 20 mile commute to work, and its 6 miles to the nearest city. There is 2 bus services that run though the "town" I live in both run one an hour and take about about an hour to to get anywhere useful. I would be unable to work, and get around without a car, I live where i do because it was one of the few places i could afforded to buy a house in the area that I live, that was also close enough to where i work. If they want to get rid of fossil fuel cars, then by 2040 they need to have far longer range than they do now. To me that seems to be far more important than public transport.
- the8472 9y agoBy 2040 you can probably hail autonomous EV taxis whenever you need one. Also note that you choose to increase your carbon footprint (an externalized cost hitting everyone) so you could have a cheaper home. It's not exactly unfair that people who made such a choice might end up with a slight disadvantage.
- cjsuk 9y agoI made no such generalisation, merely stating my own situation.
- vidarh 9y agoIt's about banning the sales of new ones, not banning the use. With a ban on new ones in 2040, it's not realistic to see a ban on use until 2060-2070 at the earliest.
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoIf you ban sales I don't think you need to worry about use, within ten to fifteen years the majority will have been scrapped anyway. In fact, it will become quite difficult to run a petrol car as all the supporting infrastructure will disappear.
- ekianjo 9y agoUnless they start banning petrol stations I dont see how the whole Infrastructure would disappear.
- TheGrumpyBrit 9y agoThe infrastructure requirements for electric cars are completely different to traditional fuel stations. Instead of a splash-and-dash when the gauge starts touching the red, people will want to add 10-15 minutes whenever they get the chance. So you'll start seeing charge points cropping up in McDonalds, Costa, and anywhere else where people are parking up anyway. The simplified infrastructure also makes it an industry where anybody can make money selling electricity. As soon as electric vehicles start becoming suitable replacements for current fleet/company cars, companies will snap them up, because now they can fit charge points for all company cars at the office, and make a little extra money from their employees by charging their cars while they work. When fleet vehicles are all-electric, demand for petrol will drop by 50% or more within 3-5 years. The reasons above will mean it's not viable for smaller fuel stations to add electric charging, so they'll just die out. Just like we had with 4-Star, petrol will only be available at large supermarkets and motorway services, and the pumps will gradually be replaced with electric charge points. At that point, even the petrolheads will be taking the electric cars for their day-to-day journeys because it's cheaper and easier. The guzzler will be saved for special occasions, and petrol will move to a delivery model, where you can order a 20l jerry can for £5-10 a litre if you're planning a trip. You'd better hope you don't break down though, because the recovery companies will only carry laptops by this point.
- Jean-Philipe 9y agoI don't own a car. Neither does any of my friends. I go to work by bike, and travel by train. I may want to have a car one day for travelling, when train or plane not an option, but not for use in daily life. I think peak car usage is already happening now in some places in western and central Europe[1] [1] http://www.economist.com/node/21563280 http://www.economist.com/node/21563280
- laydn 9y agoJust curious, do you, or any of your friends who don't own a car, have any children? I'd like to have a "carless" lifestyle as well, but I find that having two children makes it quite difficult to not own a car.
- ekianjo 9y agoExactly. When you start to consider the cost and inconvenience of travelling with several family members the car becomes quickly the best option.
- Jean-Philipe 9y agoMost of us have kids. It's nice in the train, we can play board games.
- ekianjo 9y agothats probably because you live in a large urban center. Not everyone is like you.
- Jean-Philipe 9y agoWhich is why I wrote "in some places".
- Houshalter 9y agoThat doesn't really work for people in rural areas. Rural areas were by far the fastest adopters of cars when they were first invented.
- jessaustin 9y agoRecycling them is more difficult than it looks. Recycling automobiles is perfectly straightforward. They are crushed, shredded, and sorted. If there is a problem, it's the fact that scrap steel is down to $50/ton, so the whole exercise seems sort of pointless. "Dumping" by Chinese steel mills is apparently the cause of current low prices, but one could imagine even lower prices around 2040...
- pjc50 9y agoGas and renewables. It pretty much has to be. Unless the Brexit slump turns into some sort of cascade failure - some of the more alarmist commentators are wondering about security of food imports. Edit: predictably the Conservative government is against the cheapest source https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/23/drop-in-wind-energy-costs-adds-pressure-for-government-rethink https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/23/drop-in-...