5 ms·

So growth really is slowing down. It used to double every ten to twelve months, the last two doublings took fifteen (IIRC) and nineteen months. 40% around Octo

by Arnt 9y ago

So growth really is slowing down. It used to double every ten to twelve months, the last two doublings took fifteen (IIRC) and nineteen months. 40% around October 2019, then?

cm2187 9y ago
Some countries seem to have not even started getting into IPv6: Spain, Italy, Russia. So I think it could accelerate again the day the ISP in those countries make the switch (if that ever happens).
- mrkrabo 9y ago
  Spaniard here. The only major ISP that has tried to enable IPv6 is Orange. They did so by putting people in a DS-Lite connection. This is, CG-NAT for IPv4 and real IPv6 connectivity. Result: now everybody thinks "IPv6 sucks because it means I won't have an external IPv4 address". So they stopped the IPv6 programme. The other two major ISPs also are ready. They just have to flip the switch. That said... I bet most of the CPEs that are currently deployed have no IPv6 capability. The only ones that work with IPv6 are usually the fibre CPEs, which are more modern, by definition. IPv6 is simply a failure, especially if you, as an ISP, can afford to buy all the IPv4 addresses you need. And that's what happens in Spain for the three major ISPs: they have all the IP addresses they need, so there is no need at all for them to switch to IPv6. In fact, they are using this as a weapon against the new ISPs: one of the three major ISPs mocked a smaller one for having their clients behind a CG-NAT, which is something they had to do that because they simply have no IPv4 addresses. Our government forces the biggest ISP to share its last mile infrastructure with every ISP that wants to use it, so my question is, why doesn't the government force the big ISPs to share their IPv4 address pools?
  - mino 9y ago
    This. Italian market is the same.
  - ornitorrincos 9y ago
    yeah, Euskaltel(northern spain cable isp) had(and maybe still has) a huge amount of ips. Years ago they used to put a modem instead of a router in every home, the modem had three ports with each of them being assigned a public ip address.
TorKlingberg 9y ago
Which is what you would expect from a logistic function. After it reaches 50% there will never be an other doubling.
SwellJoe 9y ago
A percentage can't double indefinitely. There is an upper bound. You'd need to look at the raw number of hosts supporting IPv6, rather than the percentage, to decide how fast it is doubling. I don't see the raw numbers on this site, so we can't say from this information.

by Arnt 9y ago

So growth really is slowing down. It used to double every ten to twelve months, the last two doublings took fifteen (IIRC) and nineteen months. 40% around October 2019, then?

cm2187 9y ago

Some countries seem to have not even started getting into IPv6: Spain, Italy, Russia. So I think it could accelerate again the day the ISP in those countries make the switch (if that ever happens).

mrkrabo 9y ago
Spaniard here. The only major ISP that has tried to enable IPv6 is Orange. They did so by putting people in a DS-Lite connection. This is, CG-NAT for IPv4 and real IPv6 connectivity. Result: now everybody thinks "IPv6 sucks because it means I won't have an external IPv4 address". So they stopped the IPv6 programme. The other two major ISPs also are ready. They just have to flip the switch. That said... I bet most of the CPEs that are currently deployed have no IPv6 capability. The only ones that work with IPv6 are usually the fibre CPEs, which are more modern, by definition. IPv6 is simply a failure, especially if you, as an ISP, can afford to buy all the IPv4 addresses you need. And that's what happens in Spain for the three major ISPs: they have all the IP addresses they need, so there is no need at all for them to switch to IPv6. In fact, they are using this as a weapon against the new ISPs: one of the three major ISPs mocked a smaller one for having their clients behind a CG-NAT, which is something they had to do that because they simply have no IPv4 addresses. Our government forces the biggest ISP to share its last mile infrastructure with every ISP that wants to use it, so my question is, why doesn't the government force the big ISPs to share their IPv4 address pools?
- mino 9y ago
  This. Italian market is the same.
- ornitorrincos 9y ago
  yeah, Euskaltel(northern spain cable isp) had(and maybe still has) a huge amount of ips. Years ago they used to put a modem instead of a router in every home, the modem had three ports with each of them being assigned a public ip address.

TorKlingberg 9y ago

Which is what you would expect from a logistic function. After it reaches 50% there will never be an other doubling.

SwellJoe 9y ago

A percentage can't double indefinitely. There is an upper bound. You'd need to look at the raw number of hosts supporting IPv6, rather than the percentage, to decide how fast it is doubling. I don't see the raw numbers on this site, so we can't say from this information.