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Im curious why would the price of tokens (which are not equity backed securities) rise? If I understand it right, your hypothetical is just a kickstarter proje

Im curious why would the price of tokens (which are not equity backed securities) rise? If I understand it right, your hypothetical is just a kickstarter project where a funding level reward is a "virtual token" and just as say a reward of a t-shirt this token doesn't represent equity in the project? Would anyone expect the value of the t-shirt to go up? Is it possible, yeah actually, imagine if Apple originated through crowdfunding, I bet that original crowdfunding t-shirt might sell on the secondary market, so it all boils down to if there was a subjective belief of a profit or a reasonable personable would have expectation of profit.

runeks 9y ago
As far as I can see from observing the market, the expectation that literally any token will rise in price is evidenced in the market. If you doubt this just go to https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ which lists over 1000 different tokens, the first 300 of which have a market cap of over one million USD (e.g. HTMLCOIN). In other words, tokens do tend to increase in price after their launch, but only because people expect that their price will increase after launch. It's like the housing market in 2005, except the investment sums are relatively minuscule. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, for the time being, and the issuers have nothing to lose. Only the buyers risk a loss.
- will_brown 9y ago
  Housing prices weren't increasing because people expected the prices would increase...home prices were increasing because the supply of money/loans for houses exponentially increased. In other words NINJAs (no income, no job applications) were being rubber stamped for million dollar plus homes with $0 down and 103% financing. And so prices continued to go up because the next NINJA would be approved to buy yesterday's million dollar house of 2 million today. The same conditions don't exist with ICO tokens.
  - runeks 9y ago
    > Housing prices weren't increasing because people expected the prices would increase...home prices were increasing because the supply of money/loans for houses exponentially increased. Why would the supply of money/loans increase unless people were taking out loans to buy houses more than usual, and why would they do that unless they expected the price to increase? The increase in supply of loans happened because people bought houses expecting a profit. So increase in credit supply is a secondary effect that occurs when people are more willing than usual to buy houses on credit. And people are willing to this when they expect a profit.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
    - will_brown 9y ago
      >Why would the supply of money/loans increase unless people were taking out loans to buy houses more than usual Because the regulations that limited supply of loans disappeared. Consider that many more people want a million dollar home than can qualify for the loan (afford it). Think about how much a single change in regulation would effect the number of people who can qualify for the loan/afford the $1M, example: cash down payment. How many more people can afford a $1M if the regulations for the loan approval require cash down of: 100%, 20% or -3% where the bank pays you $30,000 cash to take the $1M loan to buy the house. Allowing people to finance 103% of a $1M home significantly changes the number of people who can act on the want (demand), to the extent supply of the homes drops and as a result their prices artificially increase supported by more bad loans.

runeks 9y ago

As far as I can see from observing the market, the expectation that literally any token will rise in price is evidenced in the market. If you doubt this just go to https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ which lists over 1000 different tokens, the first 300 of which have a market cap of over one million USD (e.g. HTMLCOIN). In other words, tokens do tend to increase in price after their launch, but only because people expect that their price will increase after launch. It's like the housing market in 2005, except the investment sums are relatively minuscule. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, for the time being, and the issuers have nothing to lose. Only the buyers risk a loss.

will_brown 9y ago
Housing prices weren't increasing because people expected the prices would increase...home prices were increasing because the supply of money/loans for houses exponentially increased. In other words NINJAs (no income, no job applications) were being rubber stamped for million dollar plus homes with $0 down and 103% financing. And so prices continued to go up because the next NINJA would be approved to buy yesterday's million dollar house of 2 million today. The same conditions don't exist with ICO tokens.
- runeks 9y ago
  > Housing prices weren't increasing because people expected the prices would increase...home prices were increasing because the supply of money/loans for houses exponentially increased. Why would the supply of money/loans increase unless people were taking out loans to buy houses more than usual, and why would they do that unless they expected the price to increase? The increase in supply of loans happened because people bought houses expecting a profit. So increase in credit supply is a secondary effect that occurs when people are more willing than usual to buy houses on credit. And people are willing to this when they expect a profit.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - will_brown 9y ago
    >Why would the supply of money/loans increase unless people were taking out loans to buy houses more than usual Because the regulations that limited supply of loans disappeared. Consider that many more people want a million dollar home than can qualify for the loan (afford it). Think about how much a single change in regulation would effect the number of people who can qualify for the loan/afford the $1M, example: cash down payment. How many more people can afford a $1M if the regulations for the loan approval require cash down of: 100%, 20% or -3% where the bank pays you $30,000 cash to take the $1M loan to buy the house. Allowing people to finance 103% of a $1M home significantly changes the number of people who can act on the want (demand), to the extent supply of the homes drops and as a result their prices artificially increase supported by more bad loans.