Everything that Elon Musk is doing has a foundation on First Principles: https://medium.com/the-mission/first-principles-and-the-art-of-thinking-like-elon-musk

Everything that Elon Musk is doing has a foundation on First Principles: https://medium.com/the-mission/first-principles-and-the-art-of-thinking-like-elon-musk-98658bb36569 https://medium.com/the-mission/first-principles-and-the-art-... tl;dr -- 1) Reduce the problem to a question answerable by a hard science like physics, chemistry, or biology, and pay attention to the theoretical limits. 2) If you can, find data on related industries and see if you can find long term trends. (Example: http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Lithium-ion-battery-price-1991-2005.jpg http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Lithium-ion-... ) 3) Extrapolate into the future. 4) Think of some way to exploit the information you've uncovered to gain a market advantage. Other helpful techniques: Is there an industry which is subject to some form of bureaucracy which is distorting the market? How can technology be used to disrupt this?