5 ms·

From the article: "So even if every one of the other 1,200 players would have tested negative — which even the heartiest skeptics would agree could not possibl

From the article: "So even if every one of the other 1,200 players would have tested negative — which even the heartiest skeptics would agree could not possibly be the case — the minimum C.T.E. prevalence would be close to 9 percent, vastly higher than in the general population." Where are you getting your information that estimates of CTE in the general population are low?

et2o 9y ago
CTE is a post-mortem phenotype. Dementia related to degenerative brain disease is common but not often measured (autopsies aren't done very often for senile patients with an obvious cause of death, especially for autopsies that disfigure the skull). The idea that <9% of the general population at death have degenerative brain disease is highly implausible. Especially since we know AD has a prevalence which is multiples of 9%. Of course, I am not claiming CTE is not a problem in contact sports; merely that this headline is ridiculous. It's more important to estimate an odds ratio and confidence interval for the point estimate. My back of the envelope estimate for the OR would be ~3 (still concerning and large!). There are related common problems in my field of biomedical research. I am a published author in Alzheimer disease, although it is no longer my primary focus. :)
- richardwhiuk 9y ago
  "The idea that <9% of the general population at death have degenerative brain disease is highly implausible. " If you consider dementia explicitly, than the epidemiology suggests a potential rate as high as 20-40% - which is much higher than the lowest possible CTE rate. (In fact, it's possible that all CTEs diagnosed in this report would be classified as purely dementia in the general population).
  - et2o 9y ago
    Yes exactly. I also think the general population prevalence estimates for dementia are too low, for reasons not worth going into here.

et2o 9y ago

CTE is a post-mortem phenotype. Dementia related to degenerative brain disease is common but not often measured (autopsies aren't done very often for senile patients with an obvious cause of death, especially for autopsies that disfigure the skull). The idea that <9% of the general population at death have degenerative brain disease is highly implausible. Especially since we know AD has a prevalence which is multiples of 9%. Of course, I am not claiming CTE is not a problem in contact sports; merely that this headline is ridiculous. It's more important to estimate an odds ratio and confidence interval for the point estimate. My back of the envelope estimate for the OR would be ~3 (still concerning and large!). There are related common problems in my field of biomedical research. I am a published author in Alzheimer disease, although it is no longer my primary focus. :)

richardwhiuk 9y ago
"The idea that <9% of the general population at death have degenerative brain disease is highly implausible. " If you consider dementia explicitly, than the epidemiology suggests a potential rate as high as 20-40% - which is much higher than the lowest possible CTE rate. (In fact, it's possible that all CTEs diagnosed in this report would be classified as purely dementia in the general population).
- et2o 9y ago
  Yes exactly. I also think the general population prevalence estimates for dementia are too low, for reasons not worth going into here.