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You're looking at the impact on everyday life, which has nothing to do with the abstract advancement of technology. Superintelligence only requires continued ex
by ynniv 9y ago
You're looking at the impact on everyday life, which has nothing to do with the abstract advancement of technology. Superintelligence only requires continued exponential growth of computing power, which has documented consistency.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- Retric 9y agoNot over the last 10 years vs the prior 10 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function / Sigmoid function's look exponential, but there is no longer a lot of room at the bottom. When things where 10,000 atoms wide dropping that to 1,000 was no big deal yet massive speedup. When they hit 5 atoms wide we what use 0.5 atoms? PS: Arrays of low power processors like GPU's are still making progress, but we are rapidly approaching the point where there is more than one core per pixel. We might be able to use 1,000 cores per pixel, but I doubt it. EX: At 1080p SLI GTX 1080 Ti = 289 pixel's per CUDA core. Sure, 4/8k will push this off for a while, but monitor resolution has not been going up all that fast.
- andars 9y agoWhy are pixels relevant to a discussion on computing power?
- Retric 9y agoPointing out that add more cores is yet another wall because FLOPS is only a proxy and few things are truly embarrassingly parallel when your start talking 1+ billion cores.
- ynniv 9y agoAnd yet here we are, made of neurons.
- Retric 9y agoAn GTX 1080 Ti has 12 billion transistors which is closer analogy to the 100 billion neurons in a human than saying we have 100 billion cores.
- mannykannot 9y agoFurthermore, adding cores is not an exponentially-growing process. On the other hand, there is some evidence, from the fact that intelligence is possible within the human brain, that intelligence is embarrassingly parallel.
- Retric 9y agoI think neurons are closer to transistor analogs than core analogs. The brain wires them up into networks that have meaning vs passing along data that has meaning. And in that context we crossed the 10 billion transistor on a chip milestone recently vs 100 billion neurons in a human brain.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- mannykannot 9y agoIt also requires learning how to create software that has general intelligence. Some people think that current techniques will be sufficient, but that remains a conjecture at this point.