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With all due respect, I don't understand how smart people think they can predict the future from a single period in history. When is a sample size of 1 with ver
by outlace 9y ago
With all due respect, I don't understand how smart people think they can predict the future from a single period in history. When is a sample size of 1 with very dubious generalizability ever enough? Yet, for those who share your views, it's not only enough evidence but sufficient to resist even thinking about the potential for future harms due to mass automation.
- m52go 9y agoI used the farming example because it's the most accessible one, but labor shifts happen all the time. This is far from a sample size of 1. Don't take my comments as a proclamation that "NOTHING SHALL CHANGE, AS THERE IS NO NEED TO WORRY." Quite the contrary...I do think changes in training, etc. need to be made. I just don't think it's a markedly different shift from anything we've had so far.
- outlace 9y agoThanks for your clarification and polite response. I was referring to the entire period of the industrial revolution. But in any case, your argument is inductive and has all the issues as such. Since we have no reliable explanatory model of economics, you're never justified in making a claim with such certainty on the basis of some number of past observations. At any time the dynamics can change. Hence, at the very least it seems prudent to put some serious thought into the potential for things to go badly.