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Aside from the other comments responding to you with relevant counter-points, a discussion over increasing a gig economy's footprint should account for Coase's
by yourapostasy 9y ago
Aside from the other comments responding to you with relevant counter-points, a discussion over increasing a gig economy's footprint should account for Coase's Theorem (already mentioned by one other comment elsewhere in this thread, and I'm surprised more people aren't bringing it up) that points out the transactional costs of being your own contractor. The logistical tail that US contractors deal with gets non-trivial very quickly, especially as you climb up the value ladder. Entry is very easy and the logistical tail there is tolerable, but stay at that entry level and you never gain appreciable negotiating leverage. US healthcare is a huge elephant in the room, as Buffett recently pointed out earlier this year.
What we call "gig economy" are p2p transactions in name only in our existing incarnations of them: most of these are oligopolistic markets dominated by only 2-3 major "platforms". They are not a free market with lots of choices the giggers choose from with low to no switching costs; if there was an equities-exchange-like platform that did the matching, with equities-exchange-like margins, and many such platforms, that would be closer to a free market, and even smaller margins under a utility-infrastructure model of the platform where the data is open formats while the platforms compete on service and process would be even more free. Their cut of the action to facilitate the p2p transaction is not a fraction of a percent to 1-2% like highly-contested free markets are (like retail groceries). After that big cut, their "contractors" are still saddled with most of the transactional costs of being a contractor like various forms of business insurance, health insurance, accounting, payroll compliance, regulatory compliance, etc.
Our entire asset valuation pyramids and the dominant economic paradigm are built upon an assumption fairly stable income streams at the bottom, not to speak of the meta-assumption of constant growth. Insurance and credit banking are the big areas, but these assumptions are interwoven at a very fine-grained level throughout our civilization. A majority or even plurality economy based upon gigs transitioning from our current model is necessarily going to go through a drastically lower asset valuation period, and with oligopolistic platform choices depressing negotiation power on the supplier/contractor side, that period could extend indefinitely. This isn't per se "bad", or "good", but advocating the gig economy should come with realistic and frank discussions of side effects management.
People respond to incentives. The core incentives in a gig economy are: you cannot predict when your next check will come, you cannot even predict how big it will be when it comes, nor can you feasibly control the terms under which it comes. The pullback in consumption and spending from current levels will reflect people's response to those incentives. People's lives will be patterned after long-time survivors of this type of economy; certain subset industries in movie and TV entertainment have been structured this way nearly since inception for most participants, for example. General rule of thumb is you live way below your means, and you spend at most 20-30% of your high water mark annual earnings over a 10 year running average. Income swings of 100% or more over 2-3 years are not uncommon.
Under a gig economy, you will wait until you hold 20-50% down payment before committing to a mortgage; many people's annual incomes are so wildly inconsistent they can't get a mortgage, period. Note that the US new mortgage originations market currently relies upon around 3.5-5.0% down payments; the traditional 20% is now rare, the average is 11% (in the <35 year old cohort, it is 8%). One estimate at requiring 20% down payment is a 30% reduction in mortgage originations [1].
I speak to all this from spending the vast majority of my adult life as an independent business entity in the US, by choice (most years I have one client ask if I would ever consider going perm at reasonable compensation levels). My position harbors no animosity towards the gig economy; indeed, I'm an active participant in it and biased towards it (for various reasons). But realistically, it is not for everyone, and not even for the majority or plurality; it is a sustainable enough model for only a very small part of what we are evolving our current system towards, unless we put severely eroding current asset valuations onto the table, whether for 10 years (my minimum estimate) or indefinitely.
The key factor to keep an eye upon IMHO is whether or not the proposed change represents a shift towards a more symmetric power dynamic between participants. Right now, corporate structures wield asymmetrically more power than individuals, and a gig economy does not change that in most contexts, and worsens it in many other contexts.
[1] https://blogs.stthomas.edu/realestate/2011/05/16/revitalizing-the-private-mortgage-market/ https://blogs.stthomas.edu/realestate/2011/05/16/revitalizin...
- em3rgent0rdr 9y agoYou make good points. As you point out, for some people, the gig economy works great, but is not for everyone. To be clear, I'm not advocating for the forceful replacement of the current economy with only the gig economy, but rather I'm suggesting that there are good things about the gig economy, so gigging shouldn't be forcibly repressed. The market should determine how big the gig economy should be.
- yourapostasy 9y agoIf anything, the US is implementing the worst aspects of gigging. If you want a truly market-oriented gig economy, in the US at least the following factors among many others must be addressed. * Healthcare costs. This is non-negotiable. On an unsustainable path, and will collapse soon. Read around at Karl Denninger's Market Ticker site. He makes the point more forcefully than some would be comfortable with, but we're in a pretty dire, advanced stage so strong words and stronger action are warranted. [1] * Payment term games. Small vendors abound with stories of customers yanking their chains, playing legalistic games around hyper-specific terms of delivery, or flat-out spuriously denying payment, etc. Once you climb the value ladder this tends to diminish quickly (at sufficiently high levels of operation, you become a key troubleshooting component of their organization, and they take care not to piss you off), but very small operators (1-10 man shops) preyed upon by big customers is unfortunately all-too-common to hear about. I'd prefer to see a Brandeis quote-styled mitigation. He said, "Publicity is justly commended as a remedy for social and industrial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman." Some kind of information exchange, similar to a central clearinghouse of blockchain-secured documents in a transaction: if either side raises a dispute, the documents become viewable by all, with classification by disputed values, timelines, delays, court documents, etc. Works protection both directions, customers and vendors. * Liability externalization. I'm getting demands for unlimited or $100M data breach insurance coverage and indemnification for one week projects. This takes time to negotiate down to reasonable levels, usually involving scheduling calls with my broker to explain for the umpteenth time that, no, even if you are Sam-Fucking-Walton-Back-From-The-Dead, talking with Lloyd's of London, with Warren Buffett smiling beatifically in blessing upon the enterprise, you will not get such a policy, but it is the latest in an ongoing trend by big customers to externalize as much of the cost of liabilities as they possibly can pin on someone else. Fortunately, the insurance industry is sensibly refusing to even quote for such policies, but they could do a better job reaching out to legal and procurement departments to let them know they can't grab a number from IT about information security risk and then slap it into the insurance requirements clauses. I could go on, but I think you get the gist, and I'm far off the beaten track of this thread so I'll let myself out now. [1] https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=232164 https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=232164