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That's fair enough. You should really be using $80k though. It makes little sense to average over the entire state. You're then off by 20%, which is not really

by nilkn 9y ago

That's fair enough. You should really be using $80k though. It makes little sense to average over the entire state. You're then off by 20%, which is not really a negligible error. You're right, though -- I made a stupid error either way. It doesn't really matter though because it's a deeply flawed comparison to begin with, as already discussed twice. This is all tangential to the points I was making and that both you and matwood have declined to respond to.

sokoloff 9y ago
OK, if we take the Boston household figure or even the family figure, a 21-year-old SWE new college grad their first day on the job is making more than any of those. That's evidence against a shortage? I'm not replying to your other points, because I think I'm not understanding them.
- nilkn 9y ago
  The only point I was trying to make is that these general median statistics across the entire state or even Boston aren't controlling for enough factors. Programmers are generally well educated and the work is technical in nature. This does not describe a very significant portion of the individual workers rolled up in the general median statistics. I was trying to suggest you should be comparing to similar professions, such as engineering in general. Programmers don't look like nearly such an outlier then. Would you say most engineering disciplines are experiencing shortages? I don't think that's true. O&G is one potential counterexample. Chemical engineers are still very highly paid, the big oil companies don't struggle to hire the best students from the best engineering schools, and yet there are also lots of layoffs going on. The layoffs and hiring freezes seem inconsistent with the notion of a shortage. Law is another interesting example. There's no shortage of students graduating with law degrees. In fact, there's a vast excess, and a good chunk of them are unemployed or underemployed and will never work as an attorney. And yet many big law firms are still paying new associates big six figure salaries, and partners at major firms are still earning $250k-$700k. I find this especially interesting and even counterintuitive because it suggests that if there is a shortage, throwing an endless supply of entry level talent at the industry won't necessarily solve anything.
  - sokoloff 9y ago
    I'm not sure there's anything that really needs "solving". I think there's a shortage (but not a desperate shortage) of programmers in the job market, at least a shortage of qualified ones. Many of the factors you describe "well educated, work is technical in nature [presumably implying a requirement of intelligence on the worker" I see as rarity factors, increasing the market-clearing price for that work. https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Entry-Level-Engineer-Salaries,-Massachusetts https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Entry-Level-Engineer-Salarie... has some stats on engineering job postings with salary. Overall engineering is eclipsed slightly by programming (replace "Engineer" with "Programmer"), but both have a fairly high starting salary range. Oil and gas has a perennial boom/bust cycle that makes it an oddball. Everytime oil falls under $50/bbl or so, a lot of companies find themselves in trouble who expanded predicated on $60+/bbl oil. It's almost as reliable as the sun rising in the east that O&G will have more booms and busts in the future.

by nilkn 9y ago

sokoloff 9y ago

OK, if we take the Boston household figure or even the family figure, a 21-year-old SWE new college grad their first day on the job is making more than any of those. That's evidence against a shortage? I'm not replying to your other points, because I think I'm not understanding them.

nilkn 9y ago
The only point I was trying to make is that these general median statistics across the entire state or even Boston aren't controlling for enough factors. Programmers are generally well educated and the work is technical in nature. This does not describe a very significant portion of the individual workers rolled up in the general median statistics. I was trying to suggest you should be comparing to similar professions, such as engineering in general. Programmers don't look like nearly such an outlier then. Would you say most engineering disciplines are experiencing shortages? I don't think that's true. O&G is one potential counterexample. Chemical engineers are still very highly paid, the big oil companies don't struggle to hire the best students from the best engineering schools, and yet there are also lots of layoffs going on. The layoffs and hiring freezes seem inconsistent with the notion of a shortage. Law is another interesting example. There's no shortage of students graduating with law degrees. In fact, there's a vast excess, and a good chunk of them are unemployed or underemployed and will never work as an attorney. And yet many big law firms are still paying new associates big six figure salaries, and partners at major firms are still earning $250k-$700k. I find this especially interesting and even counterintuitive because it suggests that if there is a shortage, throwing an endless supply of entry level talent at the industry won't necessarily solve anything.
- sokoloff 9y ago
  I'm not sure there's anything that really needs "solving". I think there's a shortage (but not a desperate shortage) of programmers in the job market, at least a shortage of qualified ones. Many of the factors you describe "well educated, work is technical in nature [presumably implying a requirement of intelligence on the worker" I see as rarity factors, increasing the market-clearing price for that work. https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Entry-Level-Engineer-Salaries,-Massachusetts https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Entry-Level-Engineer-Salarie... has some stats on engineering job postings with salary. Overall engineering is eclipsed slightly by programming (replace "Engineer" with "Programmer"), but both have a fairly high starting salary range. Oil and gas has a perennial boom/bust cycle that makes it an oddball. Everytime oil falls under $50/bbl or so, a lot of companies find themselves in trouble who expanded predicated on $60+/bbl oil. It's almost as reliable as the sun rising in the east that O&G will have more booms and busts in the future.