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>European countries, such as Sweden, migrants are more likely to get into trouble than locals, but this is mostly because they are more likely to be young and m

>European countries, such as Sweden, migrants are more likely to get into trouble than locals, but this is mostly because they are more likely to be young and male. I don't even know where to start with this. Could it be that young and male aren't the core of the issue? I like how the article almost dismisses the realities of religious and racial conflicts. Then there is this: >If the worry is that immigrants will outvote the locals and impose an uncongenial government on them, one solution would be not to let immigrants vote—for five years, ten years or even a lifetime. This may seem harsh, but it is far kinder than not letting them in. If the worry is that future migrants might not pay their way, why not charge them more for visas, or make them pay extra taxes, or restrict their access to welfare benefits? Such levies could also be used to regulate the flow of migrants, thus avoiding big, sudden surges This seems like a very sane system. Why is this not something we do? Do we not care about local interests at all as long as immigration isn't "too high"? As an immigrant, I think this would be fair.

ForHackernews 9y ago
> Could it be that young and male aren't the core of the issue? Young males commit most crimes all over the world. If you have an alternative explanation, I'd like to see strong statistical evidence to back it up.
- orbifold 9y ago
  Even if you restrict yourself to young males then immigrants have a disproportionate share in crime at least in Germany, actually immigrants in Germany commited ~40% of all crimes in 2015, with a rapid increase in the last few years. It is also pretty obvious on the street level: drugs for example are primarily sold by immigrant gangs, for example africans with turkish bosses.
  - jayd16 9y ago
    Where are you getting this? >According to the Bundeskriminalamt, also known as the Federal Criminal Police Office or BKA, crimes by immigrants rose 79 percent in 2015. But at the same time, the number of refugees in the country rose more than fivefold — by 440 percent. In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/11/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-germany-now-riddled-crime-thanks/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/...
    - Zahlmeister 9y ago
      In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant. Sorry, but that's complete nonsense. The crime rate among immigrants (and their descendants) is much higher than among "ethnic" Germans. That means the typical German is less likely to engage in crime. In absolute numbers of course, there are much more Germans than immigrants, so Germans commit more crimes total, as you would expect. This topic is sensitive, so people just fling around with percentages and relative numbers until it appears to fit whatever narrative they would like to be true. It's not really helping convince anybody, everybody just keeps believing what they already believe. Of course, the idea that Germany is now "riddled with crime" is just another Trumpism. Considering that we have a million refugees, the increase in crime is rather low and all the alarmism isn't justified.
    - vilmosi 9y ago
      > In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant. That's not what your source says. It's not the typical German, it's "comparable groups among the current population", whatever they mean by that.
      - jayd16 9y ago
        It means compared to previous crime statistic, ie, anyone who would have shown up in nationwide crime stats previously. By typical German they mean typical person living in Germany.
        Zahlmeister 9y ago
        I'm sorry to break your bubble, but it's just not true. Let's take this apart: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/11/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-germany-now-riddled-crime-thanks/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/... Quote: "In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant." Source: https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less-crimes-than-germans https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less... Headline: "Police: refugees commit less crime than Germans" Quote: "Interior Minsiter Thomas de Maizière responded to the news by saying: "The current trend shows that refugees are just as unlikely to commit crimes as comparable groups among the current population. The majority of them don't commit crimes, they are seeking protection and and peace in Germany." Source: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Straftaten-im-sehr-niedrigen-sechsstelligen-Bereich.html https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Str... Actual Quote: "Ganz allgemein sprach Innenminister de Maizière von derzeit verfügbaren „Tendenzaussagen, dass Flüchtlinge im Durchschnitt genauso wenig oder oft straffällig werden wie Vergleichsgruppen der hiesigen Bevölkerung“." Translation: "We have have information that suggests that refugees commit crime about as often, or as rarely, as comparable groups in the local population". First of all, the interior minister obviously has a big incentive to downplay whatever problems are caused by the decisions of his administration. Secondly, he's talking about the refugees, not migrants in general. Also, what are "comparable groups"? It's not defined. If it's "comparable", then it's not going to be "typical" nor "average". The information he references is kept "confidential", by the way. In any case, absolutely nowhere does it say that refugees or migrants are less likely to commit crime, even though that's what is being reported by both English sources. The reality is that crime rate among migrants is higher, for whatever reason. Migrants were responsible for 10-20% (differing by state) of violent crime in 2016, well above their share of the population: http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kriminalitaet-in-deutschland-zahl-der-gewalttaten-durch-zuwanderer-offenbar-gestiegen/19687568.html http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kriminalitaet-in-deutschl... This article does mention however that Syrians/Iraqis are less likely to commit those crimes than migrants from other countries.
  - Zahlmeister 9y ago
    Counting in crimes like drug sales is misleading. Selling drugs is really just a business opportunity, albeit illegal. Native Germans tend to have much better opportunities and more to lose. To some degree the same is true for robbery/burglary as well. It's economic pressure and incentives that make these crimes attractive, these people aren't so much immigrants but rather crime tourists (some of them from EU countries, mind you). If you look at crimes without a profit motive, things tend to even out or turn around. You'll rarely see an immigrant responsible for arson or property damage, for example. In absolute terms, most crimes (that are persecuted) are of course profit-driven and the most crimes occur in poor areas.
    - mnm2 9y ago
      You are not supporting the leftist agenda All people are the same! Please be silent now! Differences do not exist Actually,... differences would require that I think hard about them, won't you dare!
      - sethrin 9y ago
        Comments like this which are political rather than technical in nature are considered off-topic. If you post like this frequently you are very likely to be banned.
0x4f3759df 9y ago
Not to mention the social welfare systems would collapse.
- andys627 9y ago
  No. What do you base this on?
  - clishem 9y ago
    Based on the fact that there is finite money for social welfare.
    - pmarreck 9y ago
      There is also a finite, not infinite, number of people who would require social welfare for some periods of time. So...
      - PeterisP 9y ago
        If we spread out all the worldwide social welfare resources among all the people worldwide who would require social welfare, the average would be so far below the current levels of first world social welfare that it's basically the same as the system had been destroyed. It's not about finite vs infinite, it's about the notion that currently "the good social infrastructure" in the first world can cover a small portion of the global population, doesn't have much excess capacity, and is obviously not sufficient to provide a comparable level of life/service/whatever to everyone in the world. Dividing it equally would mean a regression to the global average which is unacceptably low compared to first world standards, so the first world would never accept this.
        mnm2 9y ago
        > If we spread out all the worldwide social welfare resources among all the people We need to do this, everything else is nationalism Unf. I don't think your calculations sum up And yes: It's called "costs of living" and you ignore it (to be higher in the west") and then you blame them (for your own wishful ignorance) Where do you live?
HillaryBriss 9y ago
> If the worry is that future migrants might not pay their way, why not charge them more for visas, or make them pay extra taxes, or restrict their access to welfare benefits? it just doesn't work that way. there's this thing called equality before the law, or something. this sort of thing has been tried and US state and local governments are generally not allowed, by federal law, to deny the most expensive benefits and services to immigrants. it's, like, the US constitution and stuff. note that educational services (i.e. schools) are a very large part of state budgets. like, sometimes the largest single component of a state budget. so the big savings would have to come from that sort of service denial, which again, is not constitutional.
- fche 9y ago
  Benefits are already not disbursed equally across populations. (If they were, they'd be pointless.)
- MistahKoala 9y ago
  > it just doesn't work that way. there's this thing called equality before the law, or something. It's like, there are countries other than the United States where this concept of exceptional treatment could apply or be de debated. https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/International-tax-for-individuals/Coming-to-Australia/Working-holiday-makers/ https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/International-tax-for-ind...

ForHackernews 9y ago

> Could it be that young and male aren't the core of the issue? Young males commit most crimes all over the world. If you have an alternative explanation, I'd like to see strong statistical evidence to back it up.

orbifold 9y ago
Even if you restrict yourself to young males then immigrants have a disproportionate share in crime at least in Germany, actually immigrants in Germany commited ~40% of all crimes in 2015, with a rapid increase in the last few years. It is also pretty obvious on the street level: drugs for example are primarily sold by immigrant gangs, for example africans with turkish bosses.
- jayd16 9y ago
  Where are you getting this? >According to the Bundeskriminalamt, also known as the Federal Criminal Police Office or BKA, crimes by immigrants rose 79 percent in 2015. But at the same time, the number of refugees in the country rose more than fivefold — by 440 percent. In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/11/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-germany-now-riddled-crime-thanks/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/...
  - Zahlmeister 9y ago
    In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant. Sorry, but that's complete nonsense. The crime rate among immigrants (and their descendants) is much higher than among "ethnic" Germans. That means the typical German is less likely to engage in crime. In absolute numbers of course, there are much more Germans than immigrants, so Germans commit more crimes total, as you would expect. This topic is sensitive, so people just fling around with percentages and relative numbers until it appears to fit whatever narrative they would like to be true. It's not really helping convince anybody, everybody just keeps believing what they already believe. Of course, the idea that Germany is now "riddled with crime" is just another Trumpism. Considering that we have a million refugees, the increase in crime is rather low and all the alarmism isn't justified.
  - vilmosi 9y ago
    > In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant. That's not what your source says. It's not the typical German, it's "comparable groups among the current population", whatever they mean by that.
    - jayd16 9y ago
      It means compared to previous crime statistic, ie, anyone who would have shown up in nationwide crime stats previously. By typical German they mean typical person living in Germany.
      - Zahlmeister 9y ago
        I'm sorry to break your bubble, but it's just not true. Let's take this apart: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/11/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-germany-now-riddled-crime-thanks/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/... Quote: "In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant." Source: https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less-crimes-than-germans https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less... Headline: "Police: refugees commit less crime than Germans" Quote: "Interior Minsiter Thomas de Maizière responded to the news by saying: "The current trend shows that refugees are just as unlikely to commit crimes as comparable groups among the current population. The majority of them don't commit crimes, they are seeking protection and and peace in Germany." Source: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Straftaten-im-sehr-niedrigen-sechsstelligen-Bereich.html https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Str... Actual Quote: "Ganz allgemein sprach Innenminister de Maizière von derzeit verfügbaren „Tendenzaussagen, dass Flüchtlinge im Durchschnitt genauso wenig oder oft straffällig werden wie Vergleichsgruppen der hiesigen Bevölkerung“." Translation: "We have have information that suggests that refugees commit crime about as often, or as rarely, as comparable groups in the local population". First of all, the interior minister obviously has a big incentive to downplay whatever problems are caused by the decisions of his administration. Secondly, he's talking about the refugees, not migrants in general. Also, what are "comparable groups"? It's not defined. If it's "comparable", then it's not going to be "typical" nor "average". The information he references is kept "confidential", by the way. In any case, absolutely nowhere does it say that refugees or migrants are less likely to commit crime, even though that's what is being reported by both English sources. The reality is that crime rate among migrants is higher, for whatever reason. Migrants were responsible for 10-20% (differing by state) of violent crime in 2016, well above their share of the population: http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kriminalitaet-in-deutschland-zahl-der-gewalttaten-durch-zuwanderer-offenbar-gestiegen/19687568.html http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kriminalitaet-in-deutschl... This article does mention however that Syrians/Iraqis are less likely to commit those crimes than migrants from other countries.
- Zahlmeister 9y ago
  Counting in crimes like drug sales is misleading. Selling drugs is really just a business opportunity, albeit illegal. Native Germans tend to have much better opportunities and more to lose. To some degree the same is true for robbery/burglary as well. It's economic pressure and incentives that make these crimes attractive, these people aren't so much immigrants but rather crime tourists (some of them from EU countries, mind you). If you look at crimes without a profit motive, things tend to even out or turn around. You'll rarely see an immigrant responsible for arson or property damage, for example. In absolute terms, most crimes (that are persecuted) are of course profit-driven and the most crimes occur in poor areas.
  - mnm2 9y ago
    You are not supporting the leftist agenda All people are the same! Please be silent now! Differences do not exist Actually,... differences would require that I think hard about them, won't you dare!
    - sethrin 9y ago
      Comments like this which are political rather than technical in nature are considered off-topic. If you post like this frequently you are very likely to be banned.

0x4f3759df 9y ago

Not to mention the social welfare systems would collapse.

andys627 9y ago
No. What do you base this on?
- clishem 9y ago
  Based on the fact that there is finite money for social welfare.
  - pmarreck 9y ago
    There is also a finite, not infinite, number of people who would require social welfare for some periods of time. So...
    - PeterisP 9y ago
      If we spread out all the worldwide social welfare resources among all the people worldwide who would require social welfare, the average would be so far below the current levels of first world social welfare that it's basically the same as the system had been destroyed. It's not about finite vs infinite, it's about the notion that currently "the good social infrastructure" in the first world can cover a small portion of the global population, doesn't have much excess capacity, and is obviously not sufficient to provide a comparable level of life/service/whatever to everyone in the world. Dividing it equally would mean a regression to the global average which is unacceptably low compared to first world standards, so the first world would never accept this.
      - mnm2 9y ago
        > If we spread out all the worldwide social welfare resources among all the people We need to do this, everything else is nationalism Unf. I don't think your calculations sum up And yes: It's called "costs of living" and you ignore it (to be higher in the west") and then you blame them (for your own wishful ignorance) Where do you live?

HillaryBriss 9y ago

> If the worry is that future migrants might not pay their way, why not charge them more for visas, or make them pay extra taxes, or restrict their access to welfare benefits? it just doesn't work that way. there's this thing called equality before the law, or something. this sort of thing has been tried and US state and local governments are generally not allowed, by federal law, to deny the most expensive benefits and services to immigrants. it's, like, the US constitution and stuff. note that educational services (i.e. schools) are a very large part of state budgets. like, sometimes the largest single component of a state budget. so the big savings would have to come from that sort of service denial, which again, is not constitutional.

fche 9y ago
Benefits are already not disbursed equally across populations. (If they were, they'd be pointless.)
MistahKoala 9y ago
> it just doesn't work that way. there's this thing called equality before the law, or something. It's like, there are countries other than the United States where this concept of exceptional treatment could apply or be de debated. https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/International-tax-for-individuals/Coming-to-Australia/Working-holiday-makers/ https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/International-tax-for-ind...