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There are other fields where prediction is hard, geology (earthquake prediction), medicine, etc I think using a single data point (e.g. Interest rates) doesn't
by cromwellian 9y ago
There are other fields where prediction is hard, geology (earthquake prediction), medicine, etc I think using a single data point (e.g. Interest rates) doesn't represent the aggregate, which is if you ran the same experiment 100 times, would
Economists do better than chance?
- sldoliadis 9y agoThis is an implicit appeal the article is making that is really unfounded at some level. They seem to be arguing that, because economists missed the Great Recession, economics is a failure. The problem is the assumption is that a severe, large event is inherently very predictable because it is severe. The opposite often happens, though. As you say, predicting volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, suicide, violent acts are all notoriously difficult to predict, and you could make the argument that severe economic events are the same (I'm not saying this is true, only that it's an equal counterargument).
- soVeryTired 9y agoI think it's more that the economics establishment had convinced themselves that the Great Recession was impossible than that they didn't see it coming.