No it isn't, because each firm doesn't have a 50% chance of beating the market each year. Unless you're postulating that that is the case, it's not at all the s

No it isn't, because each firm doesn't have a 50% chance of beating the market each year. Unless you're postulating that that is the case, it's not at all the same. I can quibble about the odds of each individual trade resulting in profit or less being binary, but for the sake of argument it'll do. But a 50% chance of beating the market each year isn't supported by anything. The grouping of data reporting doesn't suggest anything about the underlying data if it doesn't also share the same probability distribution. The trades are the events which determine if a fund will outperform on an annual basis, and we can group those trades by day, week, month, year, etc.