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This opinion is based totally on "The Big Short," so take it with a grain of salt: It seems like the people who can predict a crisis correctly are the ones who
by Chaebixi 9y ago
This opinion is based totally on "The Big Short," so take it with a grain of salt:
It seems like the people who can predict a crisis correctly are the ones who actually do the legwork to verify the ground truth, in detail, when everyone else is just trusting conventional wisdom, the executive summary, and their current profit numbers.
However, the person who predicts the next crisis is probably going to have to be looking under different rocks than the people who predicted the last one.
- gdubs 9y agoRight. I believe it was Michael Barry (sp?) who looked into all the mortgages and found a ton of fraud, etc. When he brought the info to the big banks they were like, "how do you know all this?" And he was like, "I looked at the mortgages." [blank stares]