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I was kind of vaguely interested in this digital currency stuff, and even saw a few local stores tentatively start dipping their toes in last year. But now I ha

I was kind of vaguely interested in this digital currency stuff, and even saw a few local stores tentatively start dipping their toes in last year. But now I have no idea what's going on with a thousand different currencies and now forks of the major ones and huge thefts and I don't even know. From a casual observer's perspective, they seem to be imploding and destroying any credibility they had built up over years. I'll stick to real money, thanks.

problems 9y ago
They're consistently on a cycle of booming and busting - Bitcoin's value has been slowly creeping up and up through these cycles. Others... not so sure. Bitcoin is a huge driver for the hype cycle in cryotocurrencies in general. If you want to watch anything, watch what happens with Bitcoin between now and August 1st. It's a make or break time for whether that trend of slowly increasing value keeps going or blows up horribly.
- coldpie 9y ago
  Eh, I'm not really interested in "watching" it, I just see what comes my way by chance. That mostly seems to be scary emails from CoinBase[1] and snippets of news of "the community" having major arguments about the fundamental nature of its value. This is not confidence inspiring for the casual user. Maybe it'll settle down sometime and I'll re-evaluate, but for now I've officially moved into the "not interested" camp. [1] """The User Activated Hard Fork (UAHF) is a proposal to increase the Bitcoin block size scheduled to activate on August 1. The UAHF is incompatible with the current Bitcoin ruleset and will create a separate blockchain. Should UAHF activate on August 1, Coinbase will not support the new blockchain or its associated coin. The User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) is a proposal to adopt Segregated Witness on the Bitcoin blockchain and could result in network instability. It is scheduled to activate at the same time as the UAHF."""
- Ilikesoup 9y ago
  >They're consistently on a cycle of booming and busting - Bitcoin's value has been slowly creeping up and up through these cycles Have we even seen a single cycle yet? Bitcoin hit the mainstream, what, five years ago? The value certainly hasn't "crept up"; it's growing exponentially like every bubble in history.
  - jnbiche 9y ago
    > Have we even seen a single cycle yet? I mean, just look at the data. Yes, there have been -- without any doubt! -- at least 3 cycles that I recall. And by cycle I mean Bitcoin losing at least 50% of its market capitalization suddenly (bust!) and then slowing crawling back up, then quickly shooting up (boom!). No one, not even Bitcoin's biggest detractors, doubts that it's been through numerous boom and bust cycles (and that's not even a good thing, for a store of value).
    - Ilikesoup 9y ago
      >I mean, just look at the data. I look at day-to-day - or even month-to-month- variations as noise, not cycles. How far down the time-series fractal is considered a cycle? All of this variance might look hilariously insignificant in 20 years. Perhaps we have a difference of perspective.
  - problems 9y ago
    Definitely, we've seen several cycles - to name 2 I watched more closely, the $30 peak and the $1000 peak were both followed by extended months of much lower prices. After which the value tends to average out higher than it began, but remain quite distant from the peak for quite some time. This I call a cycle.
twelvedogs 9y ago
yeah, none of that shit happens with real money
- soundwave106 9y ago
  It does, sure, to a vague degree. (Fiat money is not exactly as easy to fork, so you don't get the scenario of economic system disputes leading to alternate currencies as much. The rest certainly apply, of course, even the huge amount of thefts -- see the 1MBD Malaysian scandal as an example..) The main issue to be aware of with cryptocurrency at the moment is quite a bit more volatile than the most major currencies. For now, at least, I would classify cryptocurrency investment as "speculative". EG: I wouldn't recommend anyone put their life savings into a cryptocurrency, at the moment.
wu-ikkyu 9y ago
>I'll stick to real money, thanks. By "real" money, you mean more established and widely used, correct?

problems 9y ago

They're consistently on a cycle of booming and busting - Bitcoin's value has been slowly creeping up and up through these cycles. Others... not so sure. Bitcoin is a huge driver for the hype cycle in cryotocurrencies in general. If you want to watch anything, watch what happens with Bitcoin between now and August 1st. It's a make or break time for whether that trend of slowly increasing value keeps going or blows up horribly.

coldpie 9y ago
Eh, I'm not really interested in "watching" it, I just see what comes my way by chance. That mostly seems to be scary emails from CoinBase[1] and snippets of news of "the community" having major arguments about the fundamental nature of its value. This is not confidence inspiring for the casual user. Maybe it'll settle down sometime and I'll re-evaluate, but for now I've officially moved into the "not interested" camp. [1] """The User Activated Hard Fork (UAHF) is a proposal to increase the Bitcoin block size scheduled to activate on August 1. The UAHF is incompatible with the current Bitcoin ruleset and will create a separate blockchain. Should UAHF activate on August 1, Coinbase will not support the new blockchain or its associated coin. The User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) is a proposal to adopt Segregated Witness on the Bitcoin blockchain and could result in network instability. It is scheduled to activate at the same time as the UAHF."""
Ilikesoup 9y ago
>They're consistently on a cycle of booming and busting - Bitcoin's value has been slowly creeping up and up through these cycles Have we even seen a single cycle yet? Bitcoin hit the mainstream, what, five years ago? The value certainly hasn't "crept up"; it's growing exponentially like every bubble in history.
- jnbiche 9y ago
  > Have we even seen a single cycle yet? I mean, just look at the data. Yes, there have been -- without any doubt! -- at least 3 cycles that I recall. And by cycle I mean Bitcoin losing at least 50% of its market capitalization suddenly (bust!) and then slowing crawling back up, then quickly shooting up (boom!). No one, not even Bitcoin's biggest detractors, doubts that it's been through numerous boom and bust cycles (and that's not even a good thing, for a store of value).
  - Ilikesoup 9y ago
    >I mean, just look at the data. I look at day-to-day - or even month-to-month- variations as noise, not cycles. How far down the time-series fractal is considered a cycle? All of this variance might look hilariously insignificant in 20 years. Perhaps we have a difference of perspective.
- problems 9y ago
  Definitely, we've seen several cycles - to name 2 I watched more closely, the $30 peak and the $1000 peak were both followed by extended months of much lower prices. After which the value tends to average out higher than it began, but remain quite distant from the peak for quite some time. This I call a cycle.

twelvedogs 9y ago

yeah, none of that shit happens with real money

soundwave106 9y ago
It does, sure, to a vague degree. (Fiat money is not exactly as easy to fork, so you don't get the scenario of economic system disputes leading to alternate currencies as much. The rest certainly apply, of course, even the huge amount of thefts -- see the 1MBD Malaysian scandal as an example..) The main issue to be aware of with cryptocurrency at the moment is quite a bit more volatile than the most major currencies. For now, at least, I would classify cryptocurrency investment as "speculative". EG: I wouldn't recommend anyone put their life savings into a cryptocurrency, at the moment.

wu-ikkyu 9y ago

>I'll stick to real money, thanks. By "real" money, you mean more established and widely used, correct?