3 ms·
I thought of a simple example on my way to my commute. (It's a short walk.) The Tanaka equation is an example (admittedly: not a diffusion, not a case o plug-a
by thanatropism 9y ago
I thought of a simple example on my way to my commute. (It's a short walk.)
The Tanaka equation is an example (admittedly: not a diffusion, not a case o plug-and-chug the Ito lemma) of a process driven by a Brownian with a discontinuous probability distribution. How the hell? From memory,
dTNK = dB if dB>0 else -dB
Now imagine a model with three equations.
X1 is a bog-standard geometric diffusion (we could have picked something that's chi-squared distributed driven by a Brownian from standard interest rate models) as in the 1970s Black-Scholes models. But instead of having an exogenous volatility, it has its Brownian term dB1 multiplied by a second equation, X2.
dX2 could be a standard mean-reversion equation, but again its dB2 is multiplied by X3.
dX3 is something like abs(dB3 - dB4* X3).
Voilà, an equation (X1) with a sudden break driven by the level of a mean-reverting equation (X2, which tells us volatility should come down in finite time even if it grows by a lot at times) that's set to blow up at a X2-dependent but stochastic level.
Don't get me wrong, Poisson-like jumps are very common (they're precisely the limiting process for sudden jumps) but people overstate (perhaps because they didn't really read the conditions for Ito isometry) how much a Brownian motion forces a system into normality or smoothness.
But hey, people get away with being hipsters about programming languages, why shouldn't they do that for stochastic calculus too, you know?
- thanatropism 9y agoHey. Why do people upvote a post that says "Taleb is a jerk" and makes a reputation argument in a forceful manner (reminiscent of Taleb's own style) -- and then downvote a post with technical detail?
- tripzilch 9y agoProbably the fact that you flatly ignored the remark about stuffing your post with opaque technical terms--I know a lot of maths, but I can't make heads or tails of what you're saying. Who are you even talking to? I assume it means something to you, but it doesn't even look like you're trying to communicate your point in a clear manner. Just that you enjoy using words. When trying to read around those technical terms, what is left has a rather nasty and arrogant tone. Therefore, doesn't add much to the discussion = downvote.