3 ms·

When presented with a statement, what matters is the probability that the statement is true. The credibility of a source is strong evidence in this regard and c

When presented with a statement, what matters is the probability that the statement is true. The credibility of a source is strong evidence in this regard and can be used to sway the probability mightily. You're right, of course, that arguing over the credibility is pointless, but an appeal to authority is not fallacious if you and I both agree on the authority. (Though an appeal to authority is a perfect setup for a motte-and-bailey, so it's important to be wary. Also, it is not, nor ever can be, proof, since that should hold irrespective of authority.)

Natsu 9y ago
Yes, I can understand using a mental shortcut by evaluating something simpler that's well-correlated with the truth value. However, this generally runs afoul of Goodhart's law at some point and we invest entirely too much work into something that's meant to be a shortcut. Moreover, when it's an argument, you want others to agree with you. If you have to take shortcuts and infer the truth of something by proxy because you are either too lazy or not capable of evaluating the matter directly, you probably have no business arguing over it in the first place when you could instead apply your expertise to show how wrong it is. Worse, your own correlations work against you, as you can now correlate that someone who cannot or will not do that work in making an argument, dragging irrelevant (if sometimes correlated) things into the argument becomes a signal for someone using non-factual means to persuade, which necessarily correlates quite strongly with making false claims. In short, yes, it can be simpler and it can lead you to being right, if for the wrong reasons. But nobody else has good cause to trust it, it's vulnerable to manipulation, and it's simply better in all cases to be less lazy and fully explain why something is wrong using facts instead of opinions of someone's credibility.

Natsu 9y ago

Yes, I can understand using a mental shortcut by evaluating something simpler that's well-correlated with the truth value. However, this generally runs afoul of Goodhart's law at some point and we invest entirely too much work into something that's meant to be a shortcut. Moreover, when it's an argument, you want others to agree with you. If you have to take shortcuts and infer the truth of something by proxy because you are either too lazy or not capable of evaluating the matter directly, you probably have no business arguing over it in the first place when you could instead apply your expertise to show how wrong it is. Worse, your own correlations work against you, as you can now correlate that someone who cannot or will not do that work in making an argument, dragging irrelevant (if sometimes correlated) things into the argument becomes a signal for someone using non-factual means to persuade, which necessarily correlates quite strongly with making false claims. In short, yes, it can be simpler and it can lead you to being right, if for the wrong reasons. But nobody else has good cause to trust it, it's vulnerable to manipulation, and it's simply better in all cases to be less lazy and fully explain why something is wrong using facts instead of opinions of someone's credibility.