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> The arguer's credibility does not affect the truth value of any statements It is evidence which you should weigh in deciding how much credence to give their

> The arguer's credibility does not affect the truth value of any statements It is evidence which you should weigh in deciding how much credence to give their statements. > so it's always more useful to argue over why someone is wrong. It's a tradeoff, so there's no obvious bright line with which everyone will agree. But certainly there are some people for which some arguments or claims can be reasonably dismissed out of hand, relative to the preferences of the person making this decision.

Natsu 9y ago
If it's evidence, then it must have an effect on the truth or falsity of the statements. So if X says "the sky is blue" then X's credibility must be causally related to whether or not the sky is blue. As there's no such mechanism, this is pointless. You essentially point out that it's an easy shortcut. And it is, but there's no good reason to take it. One's feelings of credibility do not change the truth value of any statements and so arguments over it are not useful. You will end up arguing over whose feelings are superior and not over observable facts.
- afthonos 9y ago
  When presented with a statement, what matters is the probability that the statement is true. The credibility of a source is strong evidence in this regard and can be used to sway the probability mightily. You're right, of course, that arguing over the credibility is pointless, but an appeal to authority is not fallacious if you and I both agree on the authority. (Though an appeal to authority is a perfect setup for a motte-and-bailey, so it's important to be wary. Also, it is not, nor ever can be, proof, since that should hold irrespective of authority.)
  - Natsu 9y ago
    Yes, I can understand using a mental shortcut by evaluating something simpler that's well-correlated with the truth value. However, this generally runs afoul of Goodhart's law at some point and we invest entirely too much work into something that's meant to be a shortcut. Moreover, when it's an argument, you want others to agree with you. If you have to take shortcuts and infer the truth of something by proxy because you are either too lazy or not capable of evaluating the matter directly, you probably have no business arguing over it in the first place when you could instead apply your expertise to show how wrong it is. Worse, your own correlations work against you, as you can now correlate that someone who cannot or will not do that work in making an argument, dragging irrelevant (if sometimes correlated) things into the argument becomes a signal for someone using non-factual means to persuade, which necessarily correlates quite strongly with making false claims. In short, yes, it can be simpler and it can lead you to being right, if for the wrong reasons. But nobody else has good cause to trust it, it's vulnerable to manipulation, and it's simply better in all cases to be less lazy and fully explain why something is wrong using facts instead of opinions of someone's credibility.

Natsu 9y ago

If it's evidence, then it must have an effect on the truth or falsity of the statements. So if X says "the sky is blue" then X's credibility must be causally related to whether or not the sky is blue. As there's no such mechanism, this is pointless. You essentially point out that it's an easy shortcut. And it is, but there's no good reason to take it. One's feelings of credibility do not change the truth value of any statements and so arguments over it are not useful. You will end up arguing over whose feelings are superior and not over observable facts.

afthonos 9y ago
When presented with a statement, what matters is the probability that the statement is true. The credibility of a source is strong evidence in this regard and can be used to sway the probability mightily. You're right, of course, that arguing over the credibility is pointless, but an appeal to authority is not fallacious if you and I both agree on the authority. (Though an appeal to authority is a perfect setup for a motte-and-bailey, so it's important to be wary. Also, it is not, nor ever can be, proof, since that should hold irrespective of authority.)
- Natsu 9y ago
  Yes, I can understand using a mental shortcut by evaluating something simpler that's well-correlated with the truth value. However, this generally runs afoul of Goodhart's law at some point and we invest entirely too much work into something that's meant to be a shortcut. Moreover, when it's an argument, you want others to agree with you. If you have to take shortcuts and infer the truth of something by proxy because you are either too lazy or not capable of evaluating the matter directly, you probably have no business arguing over it in the first place when you could instead apply your expertise to show how wrong it is. Worse, your own correlations work against you, as you can now correlate that someone who cannot or will not do that work in making an argument, dragging irrelevant (if sometimes correlated) things into the argument becomes a signal for someone using non-factual means to persuade, which necessarily correlates quite strongly with making false claims. In short, yes, it can be simpler and it can lead you to being right, if for the wrong reasons. But nobody else has good cause to trust it, it's vulnerable to manipulation, and it's simply better in all cases to be less lazy and fully explain why something is wrong using facts instead of opinions of someone's credibility.