Except you won't in macroeconomics. The simple problem in macroeconomics is lack of data -- history happened only once so you can't test counterfactuals. You c

Except you won't in macroeconomics. The simple problem in macroeconomics is lack of data -- history happened only once so you can't test counterfactuals. You can try to build a model, but the confidence intervals for the next big crash are going to be either useless (way too wide) or bullshit if what you're trying to predict is the next market crash. Building a classifier around it machine learning style will not fundamentally help, either. You can try it: here is an open source, serious, full scale macroeconomic model by the NY Fed [1]. Try to predict the next large crash with it and report back [1] https://github.com/FRBNY-DSGE/DSGE.jl https://github.com/FRBNY-DSGE/DSGE.jl