3 ms·

By 2000 everyone knew there was going to be a big correction. Few accurately imagined how big. It was like going to the doctors because you knew something was '

By 2000 everyone knew there was going to be a big correction. Few accurately imagined how big. It was like going to the doctors because you knew something was 'a little off' and finding out that you were going to die in three months. Then talking to all your friends and realizing that everyone you knew had the same disease. Initially many thought it would be similar to the early 90s recession. I.E. A few layoffs with everyone getting hired back again two years later. It wasn't until 2002 that people realized that springtime wasnt coming back. It wasnt just places like pets.com that crashed. You had every single non-tech company simultaneously scaling back IT initiatives. At the time there was still a large cohort of management types who considered the Internet more of a fad than a new paradigm. These types took full advantage of the shifting winds to cut deeply into anything tech related. This broad overcorrection did a massive amount of damage to the industry. You can still see the impact crater. Remember the big talent shortages during 2008-2012? Thats because you no longer had a cohort of mid career professionals to draw from. Only the thin number of people who survived the collapse and a bunch of novices who were just getting started. Everyone was missing that valuable group of mid career 8-12 years of experience etc... Basically a generation of careers strangled. Which is why you'll often see no sympathy for the 'talent shortage' complaint. Five years after cutting everything and leaving people to starve you have the same cohort of managers demanding to know "where are all the people with five years of recent experience"

throwawaybbq1 9y ago
Your cohort point is particularly insightful. I had just started my career in 1999 .. I had a bad feeling about the situation and went to grad school right away (after a year). Was a good move at the time because a year or two after I started, good programs had a crazy number of applicants (which of course, raises the bar to get in). Other than the grad school crowd and people who braved unemployment, what did these professionals do? Get out of tech completely? Btw ... love the hn handle :)
- johngalt 9y ago
  Yes in many cases they got out of tech. One of the nice things about tech careers is that your floor is most other people's ceiling. Having tech skills in the early 2000s created a large gap between you and other office workers. Imagine if being able to read/write was a rare skill. It would make you generally competitive in many areas, because you could learn and communicate better than your peers. I went into banking because I already knew a few people in the field and they were desperate for people. Did really well, set a bunch of performance records, put on track for various promotions/advancement. Strongly considered never returning to tech despite it being my passion. Eventually I couldn't stay away from tech, but it took some time. It also discouraged many new students from entering CS programs. This is why the 'talent shortage' lasted so long. It wasn't just a mass exodus of existing tech pros, but also a sharp decline in people pursuing tech careers. The high school class of 2002-2004 was much less likely to consider pursuing a tech degree. This is the reason you can't find piles of skilled/cheap early career programmers with 5 years experience in 2012. That means they would have graduated in 2007 and selected their undergrad program in 2002-2003.

throwawaybbq1 9y ago

Your cohort point is particularly insightful. I had just started my career in 1999 .. I had a bad feeling about the situation and went to grad school right away (after a year). Was a good move at the time because a year or two after I started, good programs had a crazy number of applicants (which of course, raises the bar to get in). Other than the grad school crowd and people who braved unemployment, what did these professionals do? Get out of tech completely? Btw ... love the hn handle :)

johngalt 9y ago
Yes in many cases they got out of tech. One of the nice things about tech careers is that your floor is most other people's ceiling. Having tech skills in the early 2000s created a large gap between you and other office workers. Imagine if being able to read/write was a rare skill. It would make you generally competitive in many areas, because you could learn and communicate better than your peers. I went into banking because I already knew a few people in the field and they were desperate for people. Did really well, set a bunch of performance records, put on track for various promotions/advancement. Strongly considered never returning to tech despite it being my passion. Eventually I couldn't stay away from tech, but it took some time. It also discouraged many new students from entering CS programs. This is why the 'talent shortage' lasted so long. It wasn't just a mass exodus of existing tech pros, but also a sharp decline in people pursuing tech careers. The high school class of 2002-2004 was much less likely to consider pursuing a tech degree. This is the reason you can't find piles of skilled/cheap early career programmers with 5 years experience in 2012. That means they would have graduated in 2007 and selected their undergrad program in 2002-2003.