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Dear god, I've been thinking crypto is a bubble since 2010. At some point, we have to admit this is not just a bubble. It's a new unproven evolving technology

JauntyHatAngle 9y ago
I actually think eth has a lot of potential, but I don't think he's saying crypto is a bubble. He's probably talking about the ICO "bubble", which isn't a controversial thing to claim. Eth has already halved in value in the last month which is mostly put down to the crazy value being pumped into ICO's slowing down.
- vasilipupkin 9y ago
  I would argue ICO phenomenon is not a bubble Rather, some ICOs are scams But many are legitimate business ventures. Buying into an ICO is similar to buying deep out of the money options
Taek 9y ago
Crypto has had at least 3 distinct bubbles. There's the current one, marked by Eth's absurd rise to $300. The previous one was when Bitcoin made an absurd rise to $1200 in 2014. There was a bubble before that where Bitcoin rose to $266 in 2011. And one before that I believe where Bitcoin rose to $32 in 2010. Though crypto has risen past the high point of each of these bubbles, each price point can be definitively classified as a bubble in it's own time, and was followed by a crash that wiped out >70% of the market cap over the coming months/years. Though it did recover, that doesn't mean it wasn't a bubble. I believe cryptocurrency is going to be bigger than e-commerce is today. But it's not there yet, and it shouldn't be valued as though it has changed the world. It hasn't yet, and it's still a few years away at least from doing so.
- vasilipupkin 9y ago
  It's only a bubble if you can identify it ahead of time. Stating that something became much more valuable over a short period of time doesn't mean you know how to identify bubbles. Bitcoin is 70-80 times more valuable now than when it was at 32, and had you bought it then you would be up a lot. So, to say crypto is in a bubble today is the same thing as to predict that in a few years it will be worth less than today. Do you know that definitively ? I don't
  - vasilipupkin 9y ago
    Downvoters, since you know how to indentify bubbles, I'm assuming you shorted ethereum on margin on GDAX when it hit 400 and made a ton? No? If not, why not, if you knew definitely it was a bubble ?
    - Taek 9y ago
      Because it's very hard to figure out where the top of a bubble is, and if you short a bubble asset too long before the peak, you go broke, even if you are correct. Don't short hopium.
      - vasilipupkin 9y ago
        Well, now we are talking semantics. You don't get to claim you are correct if your forecast turns out to be wrong. So, if you identify a bubble, part of the requirement to say that you succeeded is that you can identify the top. Otherwise, your "knowledge" that it's a bubble is useless
  - MockObject 9y ago
    I think people agree that a price rise was a bubble after it pops, and I don't believe that prediction is a necessary condition.
    - vasilipupkin 9y ago
      It is, otherwise how do you distinguish a bubble from a rise justified by fundamentals ?

JauntyHatAngle 9y ago

I actually think eth has a lot of potential, but I don't think he's saying crypto is a bubble. He's probably talking about the ICO "bubble", which isn't a controversial thing to claim. Eth has already halved in value in the last month which is mostly put down to the crazy value being pumped into ICO's slowing down.

vasilipupkin 9y ago
I would argue ICO phenomenon is not a bubble Rather, some ICOs are scams But many are legitimate business ventures. Buying into an ICO is similar to buying deep out of the money options

Taek 9y ago

Crypto has had at least 3 distinct bubbles. There's the current one, marked by Eth's absurd rise to $300. The previous one was when Bitcoin made an absurd rise to $1200 in 2014. There was a bubble before that where Bitcoin rose to $266 in 2011. And one before that I believe where Bitcoin rose to $32 in 2010. Though crypto has risen past the high point of each of these bubbles, each price point can be definitively classified as a bubble in it's own time, and was followed by a crash that wiped out >70% of the market cap over the coming months/years. Though it did recover, that doesn't mean it wasn't a bubble. I believe cryptocurrency is going to be bigger than e-commerce is today. But it's not there yet, and it shouldn't be valued as though it has changed the world. It hasn't yet, and it's still a few years away at least from doing so.

vasilipupkin 9y ago
It's only a bubble if you can identify it ahead of time. Stating that something became much more valuable over a short period of time doesn't mean you know how to identify bubbles. Bitcoin is 70-80 times more valuable now than when it was at 32, and had you bought it then you would be up a lot. So, to say crypto is in a bubble today is the same thing as to predict that in a few years it will be worth less than today. Do you know that definitively ? I don't
- vasilipupkin 9y ago
  Downvoters, since you know how to indentify bubbles, I'm assuming you shorted ethereum on margin on GDAX when it hit 400 and made a ton? No? If not, why not, if you knew definitely it was a bubble ?
  - Taek 9y ago
    Because it's very hard to figure out where the top of a bubble is, and if you short a bubble asset too long before the peak, you go broke, even if you are correct. Don't short hopium.
    - vasilipupkin 9y ago
      Well, now we are talking semantics. You don't get to claim you are correct if your forecast turns out to be wrong. So, if you identify a bubble, part of the requirement to say that you succeeded is that you can identify the top. Otherwise, your "knowledge" that it's a bubble is useless
- MockObject 9y ago
  I think people agree that a price rise was a bubble after it pops, and I don't believe that prediction is a necessary condition.
  - vasilipupkin 9y ago
    It is, otherwise how do you distinguish a bubble from a rise justified by fundamentals ?