For someone considering a startup, again, once again, yet again, over again, one more time, the probability of being successful in a startup, say, estimated fro

For someone considering a startup, again, once again, yet again, over again, one more time, the probability of being successful in a startup, say, estimated from all the startup efforts, is at best useless and otherwise misleading and, thus, worse. Instead, what matters for an estimate is the conditional probability of success given other information. It's quite possible for the probability of success to be quite low but the conditional probability of success, given other facts, events, situations, etc. that hold, quite high. The OP's nice words about working in a big company are also deceptive. In fact, especially in technology, those jobs can be darned unstable, vulnerable, and short lived. If by then have a house mortgage, three kids on the way to college, maybe some kids who need some help like the author of the OP, getting fired at a big company can be one heck of a bummer. So, ASAP, while young and making good bucks in tech, look all the time for a startup opportunity. Maybe get one going in your house den, basement attic, garage, wherever. Pay attention to, learn about, at least dip toes into startups. Start small, don't invest more than pocket change, and LEARN. Then think of your kids: What are they going to do? Are they going to have to start all over, from zero, like the author of the OP did? Or, pay attention to a family with a good, stable family business (e.g., with a geographical barrier to entry and a very broad customer list), hopefully not much to do with anything unstable like tech, where the kids can learn the business and, thus, at least learn about business and, hopefully, later move into the family business. For having a good life, that can beat the heck out of anything can learn in political science at Yale. With high irony, my experience is that the families that can afford to pay full tuition, room, and board at an Ivy League college didn't go to an Ivy League college and, instead, made their money in small-medium business -- ran 10 McDonald's well, was the leading plumbing supply house for a radius of 50 miles, owned a lot of rental property, had a really good independent insurance agency going where they knew nearly everyone in town relevant to the business, etc. If want a child in law or medicine, likely it helps a lot for at least one parent to be in law or medicine. Startup? Really, in the US, for a full career, there really isn't much alternative but to do a successful startup. The question is not whether but how. So, learn how. If really know how and are determined, then the chances of success should be good, not bad.