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In some competitive games like Dota and LoL, the random distribution for critical hits is weighted so that it ramps up over time, resetting after a successful c

In some competitive games like Dota and LoL, the random distribution for critical hits is weighted so that it ramps up over time, resetting after a successful crit. (http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution) This both reduces the chance of two high rolls coming up twice in a row as well as long periods of low rolls. It doesn't have the "you are doing really well, and now you are due for a failure" since "not a critical" isn't really that negative of an outcome. For something like D&D, the same kind of "better-than-random" distribution just comes from adding dice. 4d6 is much more consistent than 1d21+3.

morley 9y ago
I've heard Blizzard does the same thing for valuable random drops (like legendary drops in Hearthstone and Diablo 3): instead of being random, there's a proc rate so you can't get screwed by chance.
- r1ch 9y ago
  They do it in Hearthstone for pack openings, the players call it the "pity timer" - you're guaranteed to get a legendary card after opening 40 packs or something like that. There are even websites like https://pitytracker.com/ https://pitytracker.com/ that keep track of where you are in your chances.
DINKDINK 9y ago
Fascinating! I wonder if the distribution is engineered like that to avoid specious cheating claims. E.g. Player:"Look at this video of Famous_Player getting 3 crits in a row! They're probably cheating!" So much potential for fallacies; Gambler's Fallacy, Silent Evidence Fallacy..
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  Nah, Icefrog doesn't make decisions like that. It's all about what makes the game more fun.
  - DINKDINK 9y ago
    Ah yes, I meant to say "In addition to" the reasons you stated.
- awodol 9y ago
  There isn't really a possibility to cheat game mechanics in those sort of games thankfully since things like critical hits are all handled server side.
gozur88 9y ago
Dota was my first thought when I read the article. Good Dota players pay attention to their crits, and if they haven't had one in a few hits they adjust strategy with the expectation of higher damage, something you would never do if it was truly random.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- joefkelley 9y ago
  Yeah I've definitely seen Arteezy on PA hit neutrals until he gets a few non-crits in a row, then go gank.
tvararu 9y ago
Interesting, when I used to play League of Legends I was sure that the crit chance wasn't random at all. In my experience, at 25% crit precisely every 4th strike would crit, at 50% precisely half, and at 75% every 4th strike I'd do wouldn't be a crit. It seemed fully deterministic which I thought was an interesting way to make the mechanic more skillful as you could count in your head when you'll get a damage spike; you could fire some useless shots on minions then dive in for a trade on your enemy laner knowing that you'd win because of your guaranteed crit.

morley 9y ago

I've heard Blizzard does the same thing for valuable random drops (like legendary drops in Hearthstone and Diablo 3): instead of being random, there's a proc rate so you can't get screwed by chance.

r1ch 9y ago
They do it in Hearthstone for pack openings, the players call it the "pity timer" - you're guaranteed to get a legendary card after opening 40 packs or something like that. There are even websites like https://pitytracker.com/ https://pitytracker.com/ that keep track of where you are in your chances.

DINKDINK 9y ago

Fascinating! I wonder if the distribution is engineered like that to avoid specious cheating claims. E.g. Player:"Look at this video of Famous_Player getting 3 crits in a row! They're probably cheating!" So much potential for fallacies; Gambler's Fallacy, Silent Evidence Fallacy..

sillysaurus3 9y ago
Nah, Icefrog doesn't make decisions like that. It's all about what makes the game more fun.
- DINKDINK 9y ago
  Ah yes, I meant to say "In addition to" the reasons you stated.
awodol 9y ago
There isn't really a possibility to cheat game mechanics in those sort of games thankfully since things like critical hits are all handled server side.

gozur88 9y ago

Dota was my first thought when I read the article. Good Dota players pay attention to their crits, and if they haven't had one in a few hits they adjust strategy with the expectation of higher damage, something you would never do if it was truly random.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
joefkelley 9y ago
Yeah I've definitely seen Arteezy on PA hit neutrals until he gets a few non-crits in a row, then go gank.

tvararu 9y ago

Interesting, when I used to play League of Legends I was sure that the crit chance wasn't random at all. In my experience, at 25% crit precisely every 4th strike would crit, at 50% precisely half, and at 75% every 4th strike I'd do wouldn't be a crit. It seemed fully deterministic which I thought was an interesting way to make the mechanic more skillful as you could count in your head when you'll get a damage spike; you could fire some useless shots on minions then dive in for a trade on your enemy laner knowing that you'd win because of your guaranteed crit.