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I often use google "flip a coin"[1] for stupid things and the other day I was wondering why almost every single time it came up heads. I started to wonder if t

by kator 9y ago

I often use google "flip a coin"[1] for stupid things and the other day I was wondering why almost every single time it came up heads. I started to wonder if there was a browser rng problem or the code was crazy etc. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=google+flip+a+coin https://www.google.com/search?q=google+flip+a+coin

yathern 9y ago
Just tried it, and my first four flips were heads - you may be on to something... I'll keep flipping and come back with my results. Update: Heads stayed ahead by a few for quite a while, until they tied at 45 each. It's a race to 50, my money is on tails - it's due for a comeback! Update: Tails takes the lead, 46-47! Update: 47-49 Tails is in position to strike! Update: Tails wins! 48-50! (two more clicks to make a sum of 100 results in a perfect 50/50 split) It's surprisingly fun to anthropomorphize heads vs tails, and commentating on their battle
- wpietri 9y ago
  Obligatory relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/904/ https://xkcd.com/904/
  - wpietri 9y ago
    And for those who are really in to this topic, Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is great. There's a section on how financial traders often end up ranked like this. Somebody makes an effectively random bet, but it pays off big so they're treated as a genius. It made me see all sorts of organizations differently.
    - ianamartin 9y ago
      Taleb is the Deepak Chopra of Economics and Probability. What he says sounds really important, but is mostly a bunch of horseshit.
      - wpietri 9y ago
        The guy spent years as a trader. I spent a few years working for traders. I think his analysis of the sociology and psychology of trading was spot on. That's the main content of this book, so I'm still comfortable recommending it even if he doesn't meet your standards elsewhere.
        ianamartin 9y ago
        I think he's pretty much the definition of survivorship bias. And that he deeply misunderstands statistics in the same way that Malcolm Gladwell does.
gpvos 9y ago
Strange. Doesn't do anything special for me.

by kator 9y ago

yathern 9y ago

Just tried it, and my first four flips were heads - you may be on to something... I'll keep flipping and come back with my results. Update: Heads stayed ahead by a few for quite a while, until they tied at 45 each. It's a race to 50, my money is on tails - it's due for a comeback! Update: Tails takes the lead, 46-47! Update: 47-49 Tails is in position to strike! Update: Tails wins! 48-50! (two more clicks to make a sum of 100 results in a perfect 50/50 split) It's surprisingly fun to anthropomorphize heads vs tails, and commentating on their battle

wpietri 9y ago
Obligatory relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/904/ https://xkcd.com/904/
- wpietri 9y ago
  And for those who are really in to this topic, Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is great. There's a section on how financial traders often end up ranked like this. Somebody makes an effectively random bet, but it pays off big so they're treated as a genius. It made me see all sorts of organizations differently.
  - ianamartin 9y ago
    Taleb is the Deepak Chopra of Economics and Probability. What he says sounds really important, but is mostly a bunch of horseshit.
    - wpietri 9y ago
      The guy spent years as a trader. I spent a few years working for traders. I think his analysis of the sociology and psychology of trading was spot on. That's the main content of this book, so I'm still comfortable recommending it even if he doesn't meet your standards elsewhere.
      - ianamartin 9y ago
        I think he's pretty much the definition of survivorship bias. And that he deeply misunderstands statistics in the same way that Malcolm Gladwell does.

gpvos 9y ago

Strange. Doesn't do anything special for me.