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In other words. Reading about success to become successful is like reading the autobiography of lotterywinners. There are no secrets to success other than luck,

In other words. Reading about success to become successful is like reading the autobiography of lotterywinners. There are no secrets to success other than luck, timing and actually shipping your product (or play the lottery). Contrary to the lottery though much fewer people ship and there are much more winning lottery coupons. There is nothing to learn about how to build a successful product. If you want to read anything read about specific obstacles you get into. Great read!

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
cmahler7 9y ago
How is a business anything like the lottery? Thousands of decisions over years vs 1 random event. Domain knowledge obviously plays a role as well, if you can't code you're going to have a hard time making software. There's a lot of money to be made in AI right, the timing is good but it doesn't matter if you don't know anything about it. By your logic some random guy off the street would have the same chances of building a successful business as Steve Jobs or Bill Gates.
- open_bear 9y ago
  Survivorship bias: because for every Steve Jobs and Bill Gates there are millions of folks, whose business ended without any success (something like 80% of businesses close during the first year).
  - cmahler7 9y ago
    That's my point, 80% of entrepreneurs can't make it one year, so what are the odds of Steve Jobs starting multiple multi-billion dollar companies over multiple decades, with tens of thousands of decisions, through pure luck? You're saying that skill and knowledge play no part in success. A mentally handicapped person would have as good a chance at success as Steve Jobs by your logic, because it's all luck.
    - Sir_Cmpwn 9y ago
      >what are the odds of Steve Jobs starting multiple multi-billion dollar companies over multiple decades High. The first success is luck and the rest are a consequence of this initial lucky break (namely via generous access to capital).
      - komali2 9y ago
        >generous access to capital Increases total number of opportunity chances. I don't like the lottery metaphor, because the math doesn't work out (you can't buy out the total # of lottery numbers to guarantee a win and still profit), but basically, the more money you got, the more tickets you can buy, the higher your chance of winning. Mark Cuban said something along the lines of "You only have to be right once." Get your first couple million, and from there on it's just intelligent investing, which you can literally pay an intelligent investor to do for you.
        ThomPete 9y ago
        I wasn't making a lottery metaphor. I was making a if you start a company you have better chances than playing the lottery but you are still playing that game. There are literally thousands of talented people executing like there is no tomorrow and failing. Access to capital, access to distribution, luck, timing. Thats what you primarily have the other factors are less relevant because most people playing the entrepreneur game have those.
    - jermaustin1 9y ago
      Steve Jobs only started Apple and NeXT. Pixar was already a division of Lucas Films and had leadership prior to Jobs that aided in it's success post Lucas Films. That said, of the 2 companies he explicitly founded and ran, only Apple was successful. NeXT was a spectacular failure.
      - hackbinary 9y ago
        Was it? Apple bought NeXT for their OS which eventually became OS X. Copeland was a dismal failure, and that is why Apple bought NeXT. Jobs' became the interim CEO, did the initial iMac, and iPod and the rest is history.
  - valuearb 9y ago
    That 80% isn't a measure of failure. Many times a failed startup can be bootstraped into a substantially better job.
- a3n 9y ago
  A new business run by reasonably competent people is like a lottery in the sense that everything takes a certain amount of luck. Stated another way, there are sometimes obstacles that you can't see, directly, and so you don't know why you're failing. "Bad luck." If you're really lucky, then luck doesn't affect your business.
mendeza 9y ago
I don't think this is lottery winning. We all get paid a lot of money for our skills, they just work and observe that some of their skills can be amplified in value(in the viewpoint of contractors that turn to startups). There has been a lot of indiehackers that have started as contractors and built startups. I think the biggest value I learned is, "Understand you market" and "find problems that people have" and its brilliant to be a contractor cause you learn both for a living!
- ThomPete 9y ago
  No one is claiming it's purely lottery winning simply that even among the very talented people there are many failures so the only thing that really stand out is the luck and the timing aspects. Talent is mostly a hygiene factor.
  - chasote 9y ago
    It's the "only" part that keeps tripping me up. Very talented people come out with products that don't fit the market demand properly and therefore don't succeed. That isn't luck. I'm not saying that is the "only" reason for failure but just a quick hole in your logic here so there are probably many more.
    - ThomPete 9y ago
      There are no holes in my logic. You are basically supporting my point. If very talented people come out with failures what separate those who are successful? And we are back to luck and timing. Talent is important but it's not defining for being successful.
awb 9y ago
Not true at all. There are methods and practices that can help with the skill of starting and running a business. I've done it before successfully and the advice in the article is helpful. Luck helps too, but you need to set yourself up to be able to take advantage of the luck you get.
- ThomPete 9y ago
  There are no methods to make you successful. If you believe that you are fooling yourself. There are plenty of methods and practices to run a company but that has nothing to do with whether it successful. You can be very unsuccessful and still following all the right methods and practices.
  - awb 9y ago
    Success is a complex function, but there are some inputs like networking, testing the market, experience, etc. that will improve your chances. It's not helpful to think of success as a lighting strike.
jansho 9y ago
Reading about success might create a feedback loop to yourself so that you feel more motivated and possibly more guided to get to success. Kinda like hanging out with games enthusiasts, and you gradually become one yourself?
- komali2 9y ago
  I have definitely read in one of those exact type of books that surrounding yourself with successful people helps you become successful. Same for surrounding yourself with the rich. Something about feedback loops, and greater access to opportunities through networking.
  - jansho 9y ago
    On the other hand you could start experiencing imposter's syndrome. In any case, it's not easy to get that golden ticket for such circles, let alone maintain your rep once there!
    - komali2 9y ago
      >Imposter's syndrome To be fair, there's about sixteen million articles on how to eliminate this. >it's not easy to get that golden ticket for such circles Not sure I agree. I want to remember the book I read this in but I can't, but in this case the dude just rented in an super expensive apartment complex. I guess he was able to do that because he had a job, sure, but the point was he rented higher than he was comfortable doing, yet it paid off in the end. Most of the ways I'm thinking of involve money (get VIP badges at conferences, clubs, whatever), but a simple and free way is to go to shitloads of meetups and other "people gathering" events, being gregarious and meeting everyone you can. No reason you couldn't bump into a high falutin CEO at a motorcycle ride day or on the Frisbee golf course or something.
      - jansho 9y ago
        Well, I'm not sure if I'll ever have the wit and guts to hustle my way to that circle, dunno if I even want to in the first place. But there's truth in "it's who you know, not what you know" so ya, feedback-looped, thanks ;)
draw_down 9y ago
Conclusion: sell the autobiographies, don't try to live them.
- ThomPete 9y ago
  Exactly. Write a book about how to make money which has one advice. "Write a book about how to make money"

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

cmahler7 9y ago

How is a business anything like the lottery? Thousands of decisions over years vs 1 random event. Domain knowledge obviously plays a role as well, if you can't code you're going to have a hard time making software. There's a lot of money to be made in AI right, the timing is good but it doesn't matter if you don't know anything about it. By your logic some random guy off the street would have the same chances of building a successful business as Steve Jobs or Bill Gates.

open_bear 9y ago
Survivorship bias: because for every Steve Jobs and Bill Gates there are millions of folks, whose business ended without any success (something like 80% of businesses close during the first year).
- cmahler7 9y ago
  That's my point, 80% of entrepreneurs can't make it one year, so what are the odds of Steve Jobs starting multiple multi-billion dollar companies over multiple decades, with tens of thousands of decisions, through pure luck? You're saying that skill and knowledge play no part in success. A mentally handicapped person would have as good a chance at success as Steve Jobs by your logic, because it's all luck.
  - Sir_Cmpwn 9y ago
    >what are the odds of Steve Jobs starting multiple multi-billion dollar companies over multiple decades High. The first success is luck and the rest are a consequence of this initial lucky break (namely via generous access to capital).
    - komali2 9y ago
      >generous access to capital Increases total number of opportunity chances. I don't like the lottery metaphor, because the math doesn't work out (you can't buy out the total # of lottery numbers to guarantee a win and still profit), but basically, the more money you got, the more tickets you can buy, the higher your chance of winning. Mark Cuban said something along the lines of "You only have to be right once." Get your first couple million, and from there on it's just intelligent investing, which you can literally pay an intelligent investor to do for you.
      - ThomPete 9y ago
        I wasn't making a lottery metaphor. I was making a if you start a company you have better chances than playing the lottery but you are still playing that game. There are literally thousands of talented people executing like there is no tomorrow and failing. Access to capital, access to distribution, luck, timing. Thats what you primarily have the other factors are less relevant because most people playing the entrepreneur game have those.
  - jermaustin1 9y ago
    Steve Jobs only started Apple and NeXT. Pixar was already a division of Lucas Films and had leadership prior to Jobs that aided in it's success post Lucas Films. That said, of the 2 companies he explicitly founded and ran, only Apple was successful. NeXT was a spectacular failure.
    - hackbinary 9y ago
      Was it? Apple bought NeXT for their OS which eventually became OS X. Copeland was a dismal failure, and that is why Apple bought NeXT. Jobs' became the interim CEO, did the initial iMac, and iPod and the rest is history.
- valuearb 9y ago
  That 80% isn't a measure of failure. Many times a failed startup can be bootstraped into a substantially better job.
a3n 9y ago
A new business run by reasonably competent people is like a lottery in the sense that everything takes a certain amount of luck. Stated another way, there are sometimes obstacles that you can't see, directly, and so you don't know why you're failing. "Bad luck." If you're really lucky, then luck doesn't affect your business.

mendeza 9y ago

I don't think this is lottery winning. We all get paid a lot of money for our skills, they just work and observe that some of their skills can be amplified in value(in the viewpoint of contractors that turn to startups). There has been a lot of indiehackers that have started as contractors and built startups. I think the biggest value I learned is, "Understand you market" and "find problems that people have" and its brilliant to be a contractor cause you learn both for a living!

ThomPete 9y ago
No one is claiming it's purely lottery winning simply that even among the very talented people there are many failures so the only thing that really stand out is the luck and the timing aspects. Talent is mostly a hygiene factor.
- chasote 9y ago
  It's the "only" part that keeps tripping me up. Very talented people come out with products that don't fit the market demand properly and therefore don't succeed. That isn't luck. I'm not saying that is the "only" reason for failure but just a quick hole in your logic here so there are probably many more.
  - ThomPete 9y ago
    There are no holes in my logic. You are basically supporting my point. If very talented people come out with failures what separate those who are successful? And we are back to luck and timing. Talent is important but it's not defining for being successful.

awb 9y ago

Not true at all. There are methods and practices that can help with the skill of starting and running a business. I've done it before successfully and the advice in the article is helpful. Luck helps too, but you need to set yourself up to be able to take advantage of the luck you get.

ThomPete 9y ago
There are no methods to make you successful. If you believe that you are fooling yourself. There are plenty of methods and practices to run a company but that has nothing to do with whether it successful. You can be very unsuccessful and still following all the right methods and practices.
- awb 9y ago
  Success is a complex function, but there are some inputs like networking, testing the market, experience, etc. that will improve your chances. It's not helpful to think of success as a lighting strike.

jansho 9y ago

Reading about success might create a feedback loop to yourself so that you feel more motivated and possibly more guided to get to success. Kinda like hanging out with games enthusiasts, and you gradually become one yourself?

komali2 9y ago
I have definitely read in one of those exact type of books that surrounding yourself with successful people helps you become successful. Same for surrounding yourself with the rich. Something about feedback loops, and greater access to opportunities through networking.
- jansho 9y ago
  On the other hand you could start experiencing imposter's syndrome. In any case, it's not easy to get that golden ticket for such circles, let alone maintain your rep once there!
  - komali2 9y ago
    >Imposter's syndrome To be fair, there's about sixteen million articles on how to eliminate this. >it's not easy to get that golden ticket for such circles Not sure I agree. I want to remember the book I read this in but I can't, but in this case the dude just rented in an super expensive apartment complex. I guess he was able to do that because he had a job, sure, but the point was he rented higher than he was comfortable doing, yet it paid off in the end. Most of the ways I'm thinking of involve money (get VIP badges at conferences, clubs, whatever), but a simple and free way is to go to shitloads of meetups and other "people gathering" events, being gregarious and meeting everyone you can. No reason you couldn't bump into a high falutin CEO at a motorcycle ride day or on the Frisbee golf course or something.
    - jansho 9y ago
      Well, I'm not sure if I'll ever have the wit and guts to hustle my way to that circle, dunno if I even want to in the first place. But there's truth in "it's who you know, not what you know" so ya, feedback-looped, thanks ;)

draw_down 9y ago

Conclusion: sell the autobiographies, don't try to live them.

ThomPete 9y ago
Exactly. Write a book about how to make money which has one advice. "Write a book about how to make money"