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I remain optimistic about the prospect for more IP jobs. We don't need five billion of them though. I think there's a limit on what types of things will make ec
by rbranson 16y ago
I remain optimistic about the prospect for more IP jobs. We don't need five billion of them though. I think there's a limit on what types of things will make economic sense to be automated. People often far underestimate the efficiency of humans at service tasks and overestimate the cheapness and ease at which robots and computers can do things that humans find simple. History has shown us that computers and robots are often good at things humans suck at, but are often very very bad at things we find simple. Also, I think as the world becomes less and less "human," demand for personalized and human services will surge.
Your bank example is an interesting one. Have banks decreased the number of tellers due to ATMs and online banking? Not really. The tellers can also process more transactions per unit of time because of computer automation. Banking services have just become more convenient and available to a larger audience through reduction of costs. When was the last time you paid for a checking account?
There are some excellent signs that the world population will self-regulate. The more a country develops, the more reproduction falls. The elite have the most to lose in any anarchy scenario, and control the vast majority of resources that can be used to prevent it.
The real future threat is resource exhaustion, not lack of jobs, lack of capital, or robots.