In regards to self improvement, my argument wasn't really about that. I was trying to demonstrate the viability of at least human level intelligence. I don't k

In regards to self improvement, my argument wasn't really about that. I was trying to demonstrate the viability of at least human level intelligence. I don't know how likely intelligence explosion scenarios are. The possibility of an AI of human level intelligence being able to improve itself seems obviously plausible - if humans can engineer intelligence, then human level AI can. Whether it can do that rapidly is far more questionable. However, even if you think the likelihood of fast improvement cycles is quite low, it still warrants some serious thought, given the size of the potential payoffs and downsides.