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I'm a caver and I have several cave-diving friends and I think your risk assessment is off by some way. There's maybe a couple of hundred active cave divers in
by chimprich 9y ago
I'm a caver and I have several cave-diving friends and I think your risk assessment is off by some way.
There's maybe a couple of hundred active cave divers in the UK. I guesstimate been a cave-diving death every 5 years or so, so with a bit of guessing we could say your chance of death is 0.1% per year.
There were 1,732 road deaths in the UK in 2015 and 45.5 million licence holders. Assuming they all drove at least once, I think that's a chance of death of about 0.0038% per year.
That's based on yearly participation; if you went on a per-dive or per-drive basis you can probably separate them by at least another order of magnitude difference.
This is a bit simplistic for various reasons such as chance of a non-fatal accident when driving a car or cave diving fatalities including exploratory diving (which seems to be the case in this story) and difference in driving/diving dangerousness between UK and wherever you are but I don't think there's much doubt that cave diving is much more dangerous.
I'm not arguing you shouldn't do it but if you think cave diving is "almost certainly SIGNIFICANTLY SAFER than driving to and from the dive site", you haven't properly considered the risks.
- gaius 9y agoCave diving in the UK is totally different to the Florida scene. There is almost no overlap in skills and equipment.
- ljf 9y agoCan you elaborate?
- chimprich 9y agoThere was no mention of Florida in the post I replied to, but I would expect the average Florida cave dive to be in significantly larger passage, with consequently clearer water, and being able to dive with a buddy. Warmer water too. This might make it a bit safer compared to the UK's constricted, silty passages, but I doubt it would be the orders of magnitude that would make it as safe as driving. Saying there is almost no overlap in skills and equipment seems like a big stretch (at least from my second-hand knowledge). You might e.g. mount cylinders differently and use a scooter in Florida, but you still have similar challenges and potential hazards to overcome.
- gaius 9y agoUK is mainly caving with just enough diving to clear sumps. You see people with a helmet and a single 3L cylinder. Florida and Mexico are the opposite, the scene comes out of diving, big and lots of cylinders and/or rebreather is the norm. And no helmets.