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Don't underestimate the self fulfilling prophecy effect. Quite possible that the massive influx into the field right now will move the needle.
by brittohalloran 9y ago
Don't underestimate the self fulfilling prophecy effect. Quite possible that the massive influx into the field right now will move the needle.
- landon32 9y agoHmm, sometimes I think that we won't get super close to AGI until we can actually model something the size of a Human Brain (in terms of neurons or Synapses). Human Brain has 1B+ Neurons, or 4Qu+ synapses. So that's 12.5 GB all at once to deal with, if you're representing neurons as either 0 or 1. However, in reality Neurons are much more complicated, and could only treat them as binary if you have a neuromorphic computer. So we would need to deal with many many times that many GB at once, even if we had really efficient ways of storing the data. That's a lot of data to deal with, especially since you need to train it, running huge computations using each neuron. I know nothing about hardware, and this is a very crude prediction/estimation of how AGI would happen, but my point is that we might be limited by Hardware for a few more years.
- mehh 9y agoI fully agree with the above responses, and I am optimistic about major break throughs, however like many of you guys, I don't think we should just assume a bit more horsepower and things will magically work.