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> I think over next few years we would see a total implosion of meal-kit industry I don't think so. Meal kits are a niche business fighting against mass market

> I think over next few years we would see a total implosion of meal-kit industry I don't think so. Meal kits are a niche business fighting against mass market competitors already so nothing changes with the Amazon entry. If anything having an established player like amazon advertising meal kits increases market awareness and gets people interested. No one is going to have a monopoly of the food business, ever. It just doesn't work that way.

ghaff 9y ago
Pretty much agree. I think it's more: - Grocery delivery seems to generally be gaining a bit of momentum in the US, at least close in to major urban centers, as a lot of people get more and more comfortable with buying things online. - Grocery chains are beginning to take notice of meal kits. Most of them already sell a fair bit of prepped but uncooked food. Creating packaged bundles with a recipe card is a pretty small incremental step.
rednerrus 9y ago
Amazon is going to have giant advantages which will allow them to push the prices through the floor. The only thing that Blue Apron had going for it was the fact they had a giant markup on their product. Amazon now has regional distribution centers in every major city. They have a network of vendors, they have a fleet of delivery trucks and contract drivers. Blue Apron is F'ed.
notyourday 9y ago
Meal-kit companies of today think they would re-shape food industry and build global ( or at least national brands ). If the market was split between the meal-kits ( Plated, Blue Apron, HelloFresh, HomeChef etc etc etc ) then it is possible that one of them would have become something rather big or at least profitable. Instead what we have now is Amazon not just eating Whole Foods but taking away the customers from the meal-kit industry by taking them back into Whole Foods. So it is Amazon's global logistics + Amazon ops + Whole Foods supply chain in food business + Wholefoods profitability v. upstart with at best a couple of warehouses, some engineers, and a dozens minimum wage paid workers assembling kits. The pie available for the upstarts just became much smaller. For Whole Foods entering a national meal-kit business is a no brainer. It has the needed footprint that dwarfs their meal-kit competitors, it has the logistics of the supply chain and places to distribute the deliveries out of ( Whole Foods stores ) and it has a brand familiar with and trusted by the same people who are targets of the meal-kit offerings. Blue Apron simply won't be able to complete with 2-3 hour delivery from Whole Foods. Not to mention every single thing that one needs to create the most complicated Blue Apron recipe is available at pretty much every Whole Foods immediately. Oh, and Whole Foods is profitable already. Oh, and they can make even more money upcharging. Who can compete with Whole Foods? Your neighborhood grocery store. Why? Detailed local knowledge means knowing exactly who buys what, who lives where and when they are home. Delivery windows of 15 minutes. Prices lower than the prices at Whole Foods. [Late addition below:] The other advantage that local grocery stores/small chains would have over the nation-wide chain is that being Ramen Profitable after all costs is a great result for a stable business not looking at expansion.
munificent 9y ago
> No one is going to have a monopoly of the food business, ever. It just doesn't work that way. http://imgur.com/pnMMj http://imgur.com/pnMMj https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ConAgra_brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ConAgra_brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yum!_Brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yum!_Brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A. We aren't there yet, but the trend line is pretty clear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIcE4OvnqAY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIcE4OvnqAY
- calafrax 9y ago
  None of these companies is anywhere close to a monopoly on food. Cargill might be big at 100B+ revenue (global) per year but US food expenditures are 1.5T+ per year, so even a company as huge as Cargill is capturing < 10% of the US market. Hardly a monopoly. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditures.aspx https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditures.asp...

ghaff 9y ago

Pretty much agree. I think it's more: - Grocery delivery seems to generally be gaining a bit of momentum in the US, at least close in to major urban centers, as a lot of people get more and more comfortable with buying things online. - Grocery chains are beginning to take notice of meal kits. Most of them already sell a fair bit of prepped but uncooked food. Creating packaged bundles with a recipe card is a pretty small incremental step.

rednerrus 9y ago

Amazon is going to have giant advantages which will allow them to push the prices through the floor. The only thing that Blue Apron had going for it was the fact they had a giant markup on their product. Amazon now has regional distribution centers in every major city. They have a network of vendors, they have a fleet of delivery trucks and contract drivers. Blue Apron is F'ed.

notyourday 9y ago

Meal-kit companies of today think they would re-shape food industry and build global ( or at least national brands ). If the market was split between the meal-kits ( Plated, Blue Apron, HelloFresh, HomeChef etc etc etc ) then it is possible that one of them would have become something rather big or at least profitable. Instead what we have now is Amazon not just eating Whole Foods but taking away the customers from the meal-kit industry by taking them back into Whole Foods. So it is Amazon's global logistics + Amazon ops + Whole Foods supply chain in food business + Wholefoods profitability v. upstart with at best a couple of warehouses, some engineers, and a dozens minimum wage paid workers assembling kits. The pie available for the upstarts just became much smaller. For Whole Foods entering a national meal-kit business is a no brainer. It has the needed footprint that dwarfs their meal-kit competitors, it has the logistics of the supply chain and places to distribute the deliveries out of ( Whole Foods stores ) and it has a brand familiar with and trusted by the same people who are targets of the meal-kit offerings. Blue Apron simply won't be able to complete with 2-3 hour delivery from Whole Foods. Not to mention every single thing that one needs to create the most complicated Blue Apron recipe is available at pretty much every Whole Foods immediately. Oh, and Whole Foods is profitable already. Oh, and they can make even more money upcharging. Who can compete with Whole Foods? Your neighborhood grocery store. Why? Detailed local knowledge means knowing exactly who buys what, who lives where and when they are home. Delivery windows of 15 minutes. Prices lower than the prices at Whole Foods. [Late addition below:] The other advantage that local grocery stores/small chains would have over the nation-wide chain is that being Ramen Profitable after all costs is a great result for a stable business not looking at expansion.

munificent 9y ago

> No one is going to have a monopoly of the food business, ever. It just doesn't work that way. http://imgur.com/pnMMj http://imgur.com/pnMMj https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ConAgra_brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ConAgra_brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yum!_Brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yum!_Brands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A. We aren't there yet, but the trend line is pretty clear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIcE4OvnqAY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIcE4OvnqAY

calafrax 9y ago
None of these companies is anywhere close to a monopoly on food. Cargill might be big at 100B+ revenue (global) per year but US food expenditures are 1.5T+ per year, so even a company as huge as Cargill is capturing < 10% of the US market. Hardly a monopoly. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditures.aspx https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditures.asp...