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While the points Ron raises are really good, there is another source of investing error which is "generals fighting the last war" effect. As an Angel investor y

While the points Ron raises are really good, there is another source of investing error which is "generals fighting the last war" effect. As an Angel investor you are drawn towards founders and companies that resemble you and your experiences. This is almost certainly going to lead you astray as conditions will have changed and everyone's experiences are so limited.

lisper 9y ago
I was actually thinking of mentioning this, but there is a very strong counter-example: Google. One of the reasons Google went unnoticed for as long as it did (both Excite and Yahoo passed on opportunities to buy it for <1M) was that everyone thought that the search engine market was mature. In fact, I think this is one of the reasons so many people are trying to re-invent Facebook. If Google could re-invent Excite and Facebook could re-invent MySpace (and Reddit could re-invent Digg) then why can't someone re-invent Facebook? And maybe someone can. (I sure hope so!)
- danieltillett 9y ago
  Actually the "fighting the last war” effect was the reason everyone passed on Google. Almost all the VCs (and other companies) thought the search war and been fought and won five years before. Rather than looking at Google from an unbiased viewpoint (that Google was the first to solve search), they saw it as the 17th competitor in a mature market. I think the difference with Facebook is the network effect and that it is run by Zuckerberg. What ever failings Mark has a CEO he has one amazing strength which is a single minded focus to let no competitor to Facebook rise. As he has shown time and time again he will buy you out or outspend if you have any possibility of being a competitor.
  - lisper 9y ago
    > Actually the "fighting the last war” effect was the reason everyone passed on Google. Yes, that was exactly the point I was trying to make: Google is a counter-example to the theory that you should not fight the last war. (On the other hand, it is also a positive example, because no one has been able to displace Google despite there being no shortage of attempts.)
  - Systemic33 9y ago
    > What ever failings Mark has a CEO he has one amazing strength which is a single minded focus to let no competitor to Facebook rise. In the world of business, this is well illustrated by the market dominance of SAP. They have, and will buy out, or compete out startups that encroach on their market. This is why they are still the top pick for the biggest companies in the world. Successfactor comes to mind as an example.
  - srtjstjsj 9y ago
    when you look at MS, Apple, Amazon, Oracle, Google, Facebook, what really sticks out is that all except Google had incredibly ruthless founder/CEOs. Google somehow made it big on a few good hosting deals, amazing software engineering + math, inventing the online advertising economy

lisper 9y ago

I was actually thinking of mentioning this, but there is a very strong counter-example: Google. One of the reasons Google went unnoticed for as long as it did (both Excite and Yahoo passed on opportunities to buy it for <1M) was that everyone thought that the search engine market was mature. In fact, I think this is one of the reasons so many people are trying to re-invent Facebook. If Google could re-invent Excite and Facebook could re-invent MySpace (and Reddit could re-invent Digg) then why can't someone re-invent Facebook? And maybe someone can. (I sure hope so!)

danieltillett 9y ago
Actually the "fighting the last war” effect was the reason everyone passed on Google. Almost all the VCs (and other companies) thought the search war and been fought and won five years before. Rather than looking at Google from an unbiased viewpoint (that Google was the first to solve search), they saw it as the 17th competitor in a mature market. I think the difference with Facebook is the network effect and that it is run by Zuckerberg. What ever failings Mark has a CEO he has one amazing strength which is a single minded focus to let no competitor to Facebook rise. As he has shown time and time again he will buy you out or outspend if you have any possibility of being a competitor.
- lisper 9y ago
  > Actually the "fighting the last war” effect was the reason everyone passed on Google. Yes, that was exactly the point I was trying to make: Google is a counter-example to the theory that you should not fight the last war. (On the other hand, it is also a positive example, because no one has been able to displace Google despite there being no shortage of attempts.)
- Systemic33 9y ago
  > What ever failings Mark has a CEO he has one amazing strength which is a single minded focus to let no competitor to Facebook rise. In the world of business, this is well illustrated by the market dominance of SAP. They have, and will buy out, or compete out startups that encroach on their market. This is why they are still the top pick for the biggest companies in the world. Successfactor comes to mind as an example.
- srtjstjsj 9y ago
  when you look at MS, Apple, Amazon, Oracle, Google, Facebook, what really sticks out is that all except Google had incredibly ruthless founder/CEOs. Google somehow made it big on a few good hosting deals, amazing software engineering + math, inventing the online advertising economy