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OP didn't claim that the cool kids always succeed, or that the uncool kids never succeed. Just that they have higher odds.

by arikr 9y ago

taeric 9y ago
And numbers backing the claim would help. A lot. I'm inclined to believe it is all a craps shot.
logicallee 9y ago
the article-writer OP claimed "There is a small cadre of people who actually have what it takes to successfully build an NBT [next big thing], and experienced investors are pretty good at recognizing them." which is hilariously and demonstrably wrong. we already have one person chime in with a counterexample (the person you replied to) and that is a very common experience. No, experienced investors are not pretty good at recognizing them. It's hilariously wrong to claim they are.
- arikr 9y ago
  Benchmark Capital has a pretty small number of bets, and a pretty high hit rate, from my perspective. They certainly seem better at picking than most. Though I'd say a lot of that is of course positive selection - the best founders self-select to Benchmark/Sequoia/A16Z, and to Greylock/Accel.
  - aerosmile 9y ago
    Genuinely curious if your choice to group those investment firms is intended to imply something about them - such as they generally work together/compete with each other, belong to the same tier, etc.
    - arikr 9y ago
      Yes, due to tier.
  - logicallee 9y ago
    They could be awful at recognizing them and only invest when founders show up with a box pooping out bars of gold already, and not at any point before then, since they're so awful at recognizing them. so you can have a 100% success rate (investing only in founders that show up with a box already pooping bars of gold) while having a 0% ability to identify successful founders. a high hit rate does not mean you can evaluate founders correctly.
    - SeoxyS 9y ago
      If they keep growing into bigger boxes pooping gold, then you've done a pretty good job as an investor. It's all about IRR; if you invest and your investment grows, it doesn't matter what stage you invest at. Keep in mind that for every Series C company that's pooping gold bars still 90% will fail, and a lot of investors are gonna lose money investing at that stage.
      - logicallee 9y ago
        of course, I said "100% success rate", under the scenario I sketched they're great investors. I just showed that this doesn't mean they can recognize the cadre of people who have what it takes. They could be 100% successful while having 0% ability to recognize anyone whose boxes aren't pooping gold yet.
        Brooklyn34 9y ago
        I get paid over $95 per hour working from home with 2 kids at home. I never thought I'd be able to do it but my best friend earns over 10k a month doing this and she convinced me to try. The potential with this is endless. Heres what I've been doing, ====http://ow.ly/P0wk30aVXfN http://ow.ly/P0wk30aVXfN
    - tripzilch 9y ago
      > investing only in founders that show up with a box already pooping bars of gold will get you a 100% success rate at getting conned, btw.
  - foldr 9y ago
    >Benchmark Capital has a pretty small number of bets, and a pretty high hit rate, from my perspective. They certainly seem better at picking than most. Of course some investors have better results than others. That would happen if they were all choosing to invest or not at random.

OP didn't claim that the cool kids always succeed, or that the uncool kids never succeed. Just that they have higher odds.

by arikr 9y ago

OP didn't claim that the cool kids always succeed, or that the uncool kids never succeed. Just that they have higher odds.

taeric 9y ago

And numbers backing the claim would help. A lot. I'm inclined to believe it is all a craps shot.

logicallee 9y ago

the article-writer OP claimed "There is a small cadre of people who actually have what it takes to successfully build an NBT [next big thing], and experienced investors are pretty good at recognizing them." which is hilariously and demonstrably wrong. we already have one person chime in with a counterexample (the person you replied to) and that is a very common experience. No, experienced investors are not pretty good at recognizing them. It's hilariously wrong to claim they are.

arikr 9y ago
Benchmark Capital has a pretty small number of bets, and a pretty high hit rate, from my perspective. They certainly seem better at picking than most. Though I'd say a lot of that is of course positive selection - the best founders self-select to Benchmark/Sequoia/A16Z, and to Greylock/Accel.
- aerosmile 9y ago
  Genuinely curious if your choice to group those investment firms is intended to imply something about them - such as they generally work together/compete with each other, belong to the same tier, etc.
  - arikr 9y ago
    Yes, due to tier.
- logicallee 9y ago
  They could be awful at recognizing them and only invest when founders show up with a box pooping out bars of gold already, and not at any point before then, since they're so awful at recognizing them. so you can have a 100% success rate (investing only in founders that show up with a box already pooping bars of gold) while having a 0% ability to identify successful founders. a high hit rate does not mean you can evaluate founders correctly.
  - SeoxyS 9y ago
    If they keep growing into bigger boxes pooping gold, then you've done a pretty good job as an investor. It's all about IRR; if you invest and your investment grows, it doesn't matter what stage you invest at. Keep in mind that for every Series C company that's pooping gold bars still 90% will fail, and a lot of investors are gonna lose money investing at that stage.
    - logicallee 9y ago
      of course, I said "100% success rate", under the scenario I sketched they're great investors. I just showed that this doesn't mean they can recognize the cadre of people who have what it takes. They could be 100% successful while having 0% ability to recognize anyone whose boxes aren't pooping gold yet.
      - Brooklyn34 9y ago
        I get paid over $95 per hour working from home with 2 kids at home. I never thought I'd be able to do it but my best friend earns over 10k a month doing this and she convinced me to try. The potential with this is endless. Heres what I've been doing, ====http://ow.ly/P0wk30aVXfN http://ow.ly/P0wk30aVXfN
  - tripzilch 9y ago
    > investing only in founders that show up with a box already pooping bars of gold will get you a 100% success rate at getting conned, btw.
- foldr 9y ago
  >Benchmark Capital has a pretty small number of bets, and a pretty high hit rate, from my perspective. They certainly seem better at picking than most. Of course some investors have better results than others. That would happen if they were all choosing to invest or not at random.