He does not know and we don't know. Elon's point seems to be that we should start to regulate before we hit the point when the risks becomes certain, because th

He does not know and we don't know. Elon's point seems to be that we should start to regulate before we hit the point when the risks becomes certain, because then it will be too late. Once we know for certain than AGI can be developed and it will cause troubles, there's already less developed AIs, generating huge heaps of money for certain companies and they will be heavily lobbying against any kind of regulation. And this won't be just traditional lobbying towards to the elected officials. Just think how powerful a company like Facebook, but equipped with more advanced AI could be at altering the public opinion if it decides to go all in and use all the powers it has.