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> China now has an official policy of autarky That seems to be untrue on the face of it. China was the closest to autarky in the 60s, when it only traded with

> China now has an official policy of autarky That seems to be untrue on the face of it. China was the closest to autarky in the 60s, when it only traded with other Communist-aligned nations, and trade was <5% of GDP. Here's a picture of how it's changed [1]. Although the chart does show that share declining in past years, there's no way China will isolate itself from the world like it did 50 (or 300) years ago. [1] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?locations=CN http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?locations...

Animats 9y ago
It's not about exports, but imports. China has a policy of developing an in-house capability for everything and importing only raw materials. Top US exports to China (2012): 1. Soybeans: $15 billion 2. Civilian aircraft: $8.4 billion 3. Cotton: $3.4 billion 4. Copper materials: $3 billion 5. Passenger vehicles (small engines): $3 billion 6. Aluminum materials: $2.4 billion 7. Passenger vehicles (large engines): $2.2 billion 8. Electronic integrated circuits: $1.7 billion 9. Corn: $1.3 billion 10. Coal: $1.2 billion It's official China policy to catch up in aircraft engines [1] and ICs [2] and stop importing those. The private sector in China seems to be advancing on the automotive front, with the help of high tariffs on US car imports.[3] The US will be allowed to sell China soybeans, cotton, corn, and some coal. [1] http://www.defenceaviation.com/2016/09/aeroengine-corporation-of-china-plans-to-compete-with-the-likes-of-pratt-whitney-rolls-royce-and-general-electric.html http://www.defenceaviation.com/2016/09/aeroengine-corporatio... [2] https://semiengineering.com/china-unveils-memory-plans/ https://semiengineering.com/china-unveils-memory-plans/ [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/business/economy/china-us-trade-tariffs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/business/economy/china-us...
- smallnamespace 9y ago
  What you're describing is a modern form of mercantilism, not autarky. True autarky is neither imports nor exports and aims for complete independence from external economic events. Even if all you're importing is raw materials, a spike in the price can throw your economy into a tailspin, e.g. the oil crisis of the 70s in the West.

Animats 9y ago

It's not about exports, but imports. China has a policy of developing an in-house capability for everything and importing only raw materials. Top US exports to China (2012): 1. Soybeans: $15 billion 2. Civilian aircraft: $8.4 billion 3. Cotton: $3.4 billion 4. Copper materials: $3 billion 5. Passenger vehicles (small engines): $3 billion 6. Aluminum materials: $2.4 billion 7. Passenger vehicles (large engines): $2.2 billion 8. Electronic integrated circuits: $1.7 billion 9. Corn: $1.3 billion 10. Coal: $1.2 billion It's official China policy to catch up in aircraft engines [1] and ICs [2] and stop importing those. The private sector in China seems to be advancing on the automotive front, with the help of high tariffs on US car imports.[3] The US will be allowed to sell China soybeans, cotton, corn, and some coal. [1] http://www.defenceaviation.com/2016/09/aeroengine-corporation-of-china-plans-to-compete-with-the-likes-of-pratt-whitney-rolls-royce-and-general-electric.html http://www.defenceaviation.com/2016/09/aeroengine-corporatio... [2] https://semiengineering.com/china-unveils-memory-plans/ https://semiengineering.com/china-unveils-memory-plans/ [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/business/economy/china-us-trade-tariffs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/business/economy/china-us...

smallnamespace 9y ago
What you're describing is a modern form of mercantilism, not autarky. True autarky is neither imports nor exports and aims for complete independence from external economic events. Even if all you're importing is raw materials, a spike in the price can throw your economy into a tailspin, e.g. the oil crisis of the 70s in the West.