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Except we're now in the end of Q2. Vive/Oculus now have four quarters of sales, not two, while PSVR has three. Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million un

• aphextron 9y ago
  >Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units That's the thing. You really can't even extrapolate these sales in a linear fashion. There was a massive pent up demand for these devices, and the market is reaching saturation very quickly. I wont argue that perhaps 3 million units of the major 3 headsets have been manufactured and sold to various outlets already. But what matters for developers is the install base of actual users. The latest numbers for SteamVR show an install base of ~220,000 users [0]. The biggest breakout hit game of 2016, Raw Data, has a current ownership number of ~90,000 users, with an average total play time of 2 hours. [1]. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but the numbers simply wont be there to support large scale development of games until the install base increases at least 10x, which I do not see happening with this gen of hardware. A lot of this comes down simply to price. [0] http://steamspy.com/app/250820 http://steamspy.com/app/250820 [1] https://steamspy.com/app/436320 https://steamspy.com/app/436320