6 ms·

Natural selection will take care of this eventually, either genetically or memeticly. I suspect the outcome will not be as happy as what the traditions we flout

Natural selection will take care of this eventually, either genetically or memeticly. I suspect the outcome will not be as happy as what the traditions we flouted provided. The birth rate is likely the most telling critique of western society. Our revealed preference is our civilization is not worth perpetuating. As of now only those who deliberately desire children and those unable to follow the instructions on the back of contraception packaging reproduce. It will be interesting to see how this works out long term.

JBReefer 9y ago
As a corollary, based on population growth rates/disparities between birth rates, people are going to be very surprised how quickly Mormonism rises. They're basically the only chunk of native born Americans that have a birth rates above replacement, and it's a LOT above replacement.
- rainbowmverse 9y ago
  Religion has a way of self-moderating as it grows. There's already a huge movement of ex-Mormons, and it's inevitable that pockets of Mormons with a different (and more open-minded) view will form as it spreads further from the source. Think about how many variations on Christianity exist in the US. If Mormons hold to the trend of every other religion that's gotten distant from its origins, I don't mind it replacing the thousand variations on other stories about some guy having adventures in the desert.
- greglindahl 9y ago
  How familiar are you with US religious groups? Because there are a lot of US religious groups and sub-groups with high birthrates. Examples include Orthodox Jews, the most conservative slice of US Catholics, several kinds of the most fundamentalist Protestants, etc etc.
antisthenes 9y ago
Are you a fan of Ken Arrow? :) I've found his accomplishments in theory of choice to be invaluable when studying the marriage/partnership systems.
ef4 9y ago
There's a fundamental flaw hiding under arguments like yours: the "civilization" you're circumscribing is an imaginary and arbitrary boundary. An ahistorical retcon. It's as unsupported as discredited racial theories that all humans fit into three tidy buckets ("caucasoid", "mongoloid", "negroid"). For example, maybe you're talking about "Christendom". But then it's not actually in decline -- hispanics are part of Christendom, and Christianity is growing in Africa, so on net it's growing, not shrinking. Maybe you mean the population within the actual geographic boundaries of Europe and the former British colonies (including America). But if that's your definition, then you would accept immigration as a solution, and you would admit that America is already doing fine. Maybe you're talking about people who live in societies with constitutions that ultimately derive from the ideas of the enlightenment. But again, not shrinking. Maybe you're talking about a specific local cultural tradition -- but then it's not really "the West" that's in decline. "Western civilization" necessarily spans a huge range of cultures, otherwise you can't successfully take credit for everything from Socrates to Charlemagne to Descarte to Luther to Newton to Einstein. Consider the magnitude of the cultural turnover across that span! Is South America part of "Western civilization"? It's literally in the western hemisphere and colonized by Spain and Portugal. If you're really talking about having a connection to European cultural history, it clearly fits. But if we include it, then again the decline disappears. Guatemalan immigrations to the US can't be a non-western invasion. What it boils down to is, people use "western civilization" as a cover for "white people just like me". But there's no non-racist way to equate that with "civilization". Our civilization -- the actual web of relationships and institutions that keep the lights on -- is clearly doing fine. That web is fundamentally global, as much as that annoys chauvinists. And globally, the world is getting richer and more equal at a rapid pace. Mortality is falling. The population is not in decline, although it has a good shot at plateauing in the coming decades, which will be a good thing.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- remarkEon 9y ago
  >Our civilization -- the actual web of relationships and institutions that keep the lights on -- is clearly doing fine. Given even a passing look at just the last 2 decades, and the serious prospects for massive social unrest going forward both in the States and in Europe, which often get discussed here, how in the world can you say that. "The World" (since you apparently are one of those who think the term "Western Civilization" is racist), in my judgement, is looking at the most global security risk since the lead up to WWI. There's well documented demographic shifts in Europe that could lead to a fundamental cultural re-imaging of the continent. We might be careening into another financial crisis. No, it is not "clearly doing fine."
cmahler7 9y ago
What's your opinion on studies showing that people with lower intelligence reproduce at much higher rates? This would seem to lead to an Idiocracy like future. Do you think something should be done to prevent this?
- Moshe_Silnorin 9y ago
  It's not pseudoscience and I suspect we'll have firm genetic proof that this has occurred. However, it is so slow it likely won't matter. Genetic engineering for increased IQ is looking like it will be easier than anticipated. Hell, even embryo selection would give us 8 points per generation. Should be possible as soon as we have about a million genomes tagged with their donor's IQ. This would make quick work of any dysgenic trend. However our civilization is so self-hating and in such denial of the biological realities around intelligence and reproduction that I suspect we'll be a generation behind Asian nations when it comes to widespread use of such technology.
  - cmahler7 9y ago
    I agree, China is already investing massively in research on intelligence and they won't be afraid to use it. Chinese culture combined with super-intelligence will be unstoppable. >such denial of the biological realities around intelligence and reproduction I've always thought it was funny how people are perfectly fine saying height is genetic but saying intelligence is genetic is unthinkable. Research shows intelligence is just as, if not more so, influenced by genetics
    - remarkEon 9y ago
      >I've always thought it was funny how people are perfectly fine saying height is genetic but saying intelligence is genetic is unthinkable. Or behavior, and then purchase a specific dog because of that breed's selected behavioral characteristics.
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]

JBReefer 9y ago

As a corollary, based on population growth rates/disparities between birth rates, people are going to be very surprised how quickly Mormonism rises. They're basically the only chunk of native born Americans that have a birth rates above replacement, and it's a LOT above replacement.

rainbowmverse 9y ago
Religion has a way of self-moderating as it grows. There's already a huge movement of ex-Mormons, and it's inevitable that pockets of Mormons with a different (and more open-minded) view will form as it spreads further from the source. Think about how many variations on Christianity exist in the US. If Mormons hold to the trend of every other religion that's gotten distant from its origins, I don't mind it replacing the thousand variations on other stories about some guy having adventures in the desert.
greglindahl 9y ago
How familiar are you with US religious groups? Because there are a lot of US religious groups and sub-groups with high birthrates. Examples include Orthodox Jews, the most conservative slice of US Catholics, several kinds of the most fundamentalist Protestants, etc etc.

antisthenes 9y ago

Are you a fan of Ken Arrow? :) I've found his accomplishments in theory of choice to be invaluable when studying the marriage/partnership systems.

ef4 9y ago

There's a fundamental flaw hiding under arguments like yours: the "civilization" you're circumscribing is an imaginary and arbitrary boundary. An ahistorical retcon. It's as unsupported as discredited racial theories that all humans fit into three tidy buckets ("caucasoid", "mongoloid", "negroid"). For example, maybe you're talking about "Christendom". But then it's not actually in decline -- hispanics are part of Christendom, and Christianity is growing in Africa, so on net it's growing, not shrinking. Maybe you mean the population within the actual geographic boundaries of Europe and the former British colonies (including America). But if that's your definition, then you would accept immigration as a solution, and you would admit that America is already doing fine. Maybe you're talking about people who live in societies with constitutions that ultimately derive from the ideas of the enlightenment. But again, not shrinking. Maybe you're talking about a specific local cultural tradition -- but then it's not really "the West" that's in decline. "Western civilization" necessarily spans a huge range of cultures, otherwise you can't successfully take credit for everything from Socrates to Charlemagne to Descarte to Luther to Newton to Einstein. Consider the magnitude of the cultural turnover across that span! Is South America part of "Western civilization"? It's literally in the western hemisphere and colonized by Spain and Portugal. If you're really talking about having a connection to European cultural history, it clearly fits. But if we include it, then again the decline disappears. Guatemalan immigrations to the US can't be a non-western invasion. What it boils down to is, people use "western civilization" as a cover for "white people just like me". But there's no non-racist way to equate that with "civilization". Our civilization -- the actual web of relationships and institutions that keep the lights on -- is clearly doing fine. That web is fundamentally global, as much as that annoys chauvinists. And globally, the world is getting richer and more equal at a rapid pace. Mortality is falling. The population is not in decline, although it has a good shot at plateauing in the coming decades, which will be a good thing.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
remarkEon 9y ago
>Our civilization -- the actual web of relationships and institutions that keep the lights on -- is clearly doing fine. Given even a passing look at just the last 2 decades, and the serious prospects for massive social unrest going forward both in the States and in Europe, which often get discussed here, how in the world can you say that. "The World" (since you apparently are one of those who think the term "Western Civilization" is racist), in my judgement, is looking at the most global security risk since the lead up to WWI. There's well documented demographic shifts in Europe that could lead to a fundamental cultural re-imaging of the continent. We might be careening into another financial crisis. No, it is not "clearly doing fine."

cmahler7 9y ago

What's your opinion on studies showing that people with lower intelligence reproduce at much higher rates? This would seem to lead to an Idiocracy like future. Do you think something should be done to prevent this?

Moshe_Silnorin 9y ago
It's not pseudoscience and I suspect we'll have firm genetic proof that this has occurred. However, it is so slow it likely won't matter. Genetic engineering for increased IQ is looking like it will be easier than anticipated. Hell, even embryo selection would give us 8 points per generation. Should be possible as soon as we have about a million genomes tagged with their donor's IQ. This would make quick work of any dysgenic trend. However our civilization is so self-hating and in such denial of the biological realities around intelligence and reproduction that I suspect we'll be a generation behind Asian nations when it comes to widespread use of such technology.
- cmahler7 9y ago
  I agree, China is already investing massively in research on intelligence and they won't be afraid to use it. Chinese culture combined with super-intelligence will be unstoppable. >such denial of the biological realities around intelligence and reproduction I've always thought it was funny how people are perfectly fine saying height is genetic but saying intelligence is genetic is unthinkable. Research shows intelligence is just as, if not more so, influenced by genetics
  - remarkEon 9y ago
    >I've always thought it was funny how people are perfectly fine saying height is genetic but saying intelligence is genetic is unthinkable. Or behavior, and then purchase a specific dog because of that breed's selected behavioral characteristics.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]