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How do you define widespread adoption? When adding all the current gen VR systems together we're already over 10M units sold.

by Strom 9y ago

aphextron 9y ago
Those are really optimistic numbers which must include GearVR and its competitors, which are toys that most people do not consider true VR. Total sales for Rift, PSVR, and Vive are ~1.5 million units combined. All the others (OSVR, chinese clones, et. al.) might add up to 2 million total.
- Strom 9y ago
  The 10M figure does include Gear VR yes. It's less capable than a Vive but ignoring its success while prophecising VR's doom seems weird to me.
- sergiosgc 9y ago
  I don't know where you are getting the 2 million total, but it is wildly off: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units. This is for the worse quarter of the year, post launch hype and off Christmas sales. I'd wager there are 5 million units of "serious" VR units out there. Also of note, something I didn't know: The Vive is outselling Oculus Rift at almost a 2:1 ratio.
  - aphextron 9y ago
    >These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units Combined with the sales from last year, that's almost precisely the 1.5 million units I mentioned sold of the major 3.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
    - sergiosgc 9y ago
      Except we're now in the end of Q2. Vive/Oculus now have four quarters of sales, not two, while PSVR has three. Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units, and you still have to account for both the Christmas and launch factors.
      - aphextron 9y ago
        >Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units That's the thing. You really can't even extrapolate these sales in a linear fashion. There was a massive pent up demand for these devices, and the market is reaching saturation very quickly. I wont argue that perhaps 3 million units of the major 3 headsets have been manufactured and sold to various outlets already. But what matters for developers is the install base of actual users. The latest numbers for SteamVR show an install base of ~220,000 users [0]. The biggest breakout hit game of 2016, Raw Data, has a current ownership number of ~90,000 users, with an average total play time of 2 hours. [1]. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but the numbers simply wont be there to support large scale development of games until the install base increases at least 10x, which I do not see happening with this gen of hardware. A lot of this comes down simply to price. [0] http://steamspy.com/app/250820 http://steamspy.com/app/250820 [1] https://steamspy.com/app/436320 https://steamspy.com/app/436320
43224gg252 9y ago
Basically when new games are made for VR first and traditional games (PS4/XBOX/Nintendo) are more for niche gamers.
- Strom 9y ago
  That's a pretty interesting goal. I haven't thought too much about this, but for that to happen we'd need some high bandwidth brain-computer links. Then those new VR systems with brainlinks would also have to be cheaper than all the existing traditional gaming platforms. Add the gaming system upgrade cycle to that (5-10 years). So I'd wager it won't happen for at least another 30-40 years at least. That said, I can easily see VR system sales being in the billions with just 10 years. It's just that traditional systems will outnumber VR systems for a long time, especially if a VR system also depends on owning a traditional system.

How do you define widespread adoption? When adding all the current gen VR systems together we're already over 10M units sold.

by Strom 9y ago

How do you define widespread adoption? When adding all the current gen VR systems together we're already over 10M units sold.

aphextron 9y ago

Those are really optimistic numbers which must include GearVR and its competitors, which are toys that most people do not consider true VR. Total sales for Rift, PSVR, and Vive are ~1.5 million units combined. All the others (OSVR, chinese clones, et. al.) might add up to 2 million total.

Strom 9y ago
The 10M figure does include Gear VR yes. It's less capable than a Vive but ignoring its success while prophecising VR's doom seems weird to me.
sergiosgc 9y ago
I don't know where you are getting the 2 million total, but it is wildly off: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units. This is for the worse quarter of the year, post launch hype and off Christmas sales. I'd wager there are 5 million units of "serious" VR units out there. Also of note, something I didn't know: The Vive is outselling Oculus Rift at almost a 2:1 ratio.
- aphextron 9y ago
  >These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units Combined with the sales from last year, that's almost precisely the 1.5 million units I mentioned sold of the major 3.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - sergiosgc 9y ago
    Except we're now in the end of Q2. Vive/Oculus now have four quarters of sales, not two, while PSVR has three. Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units, and you still have to account for both the Christmas and launch factors.
    - aphextron 9y ago
      >Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units That's the thing. You really can't even extrapolate these sales in a linear fashion. There was a massive pent up demand for these devices, and the market is reaching saturation very quickly. I wont argue that perhaps 3 million units of the major 3 headsets have been manufactured and sold to various outlets already. But what matters for developers is the install base of actual users. The latest numbers for SteamVR show an install base of ~220,000 users [0]. The biggest breakout hit game of 2016, Raw Data, has a current ownership number of ~90,000 users, with an average total play time of 2 hours. [1]. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but the numbers simply wont be there to support large scale development of games until the install base increases at least 10x, which I do not see happening with this gen of hardware. A lot of this comes down simply to price. [0] http://steamspy.com/app/250820 http://steamspy.com/app/250820 [1] https://steamspy.com/app/436320 https://steamspy.com/app/436320

43224gg252 9y ago

Basically when new games are made for VR first and traditional games (PS4/XBOX/Nintendo) are more for niche gamers.

Strom 9y ago
That's a pretty interesting goal. I haven't thought too much about this, but for that to happen we'd need some high bandwidth brain-computer links. Then those new VR systems with brainlinks would also have to be cheaper than all the existing traditional gaming platforms. Add the gaming system upgrade cycle to that (5-10 years). So I'd wager it won't happen for at least another 30-40 years at least. That said, I can easily see VR system sales being in the billions with just 10 years. It's just that traditional systems will outnumber VR systems for a long time, especially if a VR system also depends on owning a traditional system.