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Is it safe to say that VR still has another decade (at least) before it gets any kind of wide spread adoption? I was hyped a couple years ago for VR but it feel

Is it safe to say that VR still has another decade (at least) before it gets any kind of wide spread adoption? I was hyped a couple years ago for VR but it feels like its fizzled out.

mrfusion 9y ago
We're in the trough of disillusionment.
- hacker_9 9y ago
  Indeed, the hype train is always miles ahead of reality.
Strom 9y ago
How do you define widespread adoption? When adding all the current gen VR systems together we're already over 10M units sold.
- aphextron 9y ago
  Those are really optimistic numbers which must include GearVR and its competitors, which are toys that most people do not consider true VR. Total sales for Rift, PSVR, and Vive are ~1.5 million units combined. All the others (OSVR, chinese clones, et. al.) might add up to 2 million total.
  - Strom 9y ago
    The 10M figure does include Gear VR yes. It's less capable than a Vive but ignoring its success while prophecising VR's doom seems weird to me.
  - sergiosgc 9y ago
    I don't know where you are getting the 2 million total, but it is wildly off: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units. This is for the worse quarter of the year, post launch hype and off Christmas sales. I'd wager there are 5 million units of "serious" VR units out there. Also of note, something I didn't know: The Vive is outselling Oculus Rift at almost a 2:1 ratio.
    - aphextron 9y ago
      >These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units Combined with the sales from last year, that's almost precisely the 1.5 million units I mentioned sold of the major 3.
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
      - sergiosgc 9y ago
        Except we're now in the end of Q2. Vive/Oculus now have four quarters of sales, not two, while PSVR has three. Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units, and you still have to account for both the Christmas and launch factors.
        aphextron 9y ago
        >Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units That's the thing. You really can't even extrapolate these sales in a linear fashion. There was a massive pent up demand for these devices, and the market is reaching saturation very quickly. I wont argue that perhaps 3 million units of the major 3 headsets have been manufactured and sold to various outlets already. But what matters for developers is the install base of actual users. The latest numbers for SteamVR show an install base of ~220,000 users [0]. The biggest breakout hit game of 2016, Raw Data, has a current ownership number of ~90,000 users, with an average total play time of 2 hours. [1]. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but the numbers simply wont be there to support large scale development of games until the install base increases at least 10x, which I do not see happening with this gen of hardware. A lot of this comes down simply to price. [0] http://steamspy.com/app/250820 http://steamspy.com/app/250820 [1] https://steamspy.com/app/436320 https://steamspy.com/app/436320
- 43224gg252 9y ago
  Basically when new games are made for VR first and traditional games (PS4/XBOX/Nintendo) are more for niche gamers.
  - Strom 9y ago
    That's a pretty interesting goal. I haven't thought too much about this, but for that to happen we'd need some high bandwidth brain-computer links. Then those new VR systems with brainlinks would also have to be cheaper than all the existing traditional gaming platforms. Add the gaming system upgrade cycle to that (5-10 years). So I'd wager it won't happen for at least another 30-40 years at least. That said, I can easily see VR system sales being in the billions with just 10 years. It's just that traditional systems will outnumber VR systems for a long time, especially if a VR system also depends on owning a traditional system.
Ajedi32 9y ago
Well, there's certainly not as much hype anymore as there may have been a couple years ago, but I wouldn't really say it's "fizzled out". New games are coming out all the time (e.g. Robo Recall, Echo Arena), new hardware is being developed (version 2 of the lighthouse trackers, Valve's knuckle controllers, new headsets from LG, etc.), and we're finally starting to get to the point where there are a lot of games available for VR that are more than just tech demos. The ecosystem is still very much alive.
empath75 9y ago
I'd say we'd have to wait for generation two before giving up on it. Cheaper, lighter, higher resolution, etc.
ghaff 9y ago
I don't know what the timeframe is but, yeah, it probably needs to get to untethered few hundred dollar with better video quality range. At that point it's pretty much a no-brainer for anyone who doesn't have motion sickness problems with it. At which point, volume drives content like virtual tourism that gets beyond hardcore gaming. AR is probably more interesting in the long-term although that will have to navigate through the glass-hole problem among other things.
jackmott 9y ago
id say five years. the price cuts will help. i will get one (again) when pixel density doubles.
aphextron 9y ago
Yes. I was a hardcore fanboy, bought the DK2, had both Rift and Vive preorders on day one. Spent months making my own games and VR experiments in Unity. However I just sold all of my headsets last month. Theres been a lot of amazing stuff to come out of this generation of VR. But as hard as the software devs try, you simply can't get past the fact that the hardware isn't ready for primetime yet. The clunky controllers, the wires, the sensors. We need full wireless, full FOV, and at least double the pixel density/resolution with a control scheme that uses finger tracking lightweight gloves. Th current gen of tech is really mindblowing at first, and it certainly has incredible potential. But until then VR will unfortunately remain a niche toy like HOTAS controllers.
- hkmurakami 9y ago
  This is why I'd never want to do a VR company right now (at least not with my own money and shouldering all the risk). Having my fate depend on hardware vendors who don't necessarily have interests aligned with me is not a situation I want to get into!
- barkingcat 9y ago
  Full wireless would be a great thing to have. The wires as it is now are not ready for mass adoption.
- simonhughes22 9y ago
  Have you seen the TPCast? That makes the vive wireless, and can already by shipped from China, coming to the US later this year. Intel is also releasing something similar for the vive next year. So that is wireless. LG is bringing out a SteamVR headset later this year with a higher pixel density. And valve just sent out the Kunckles controller to devs, which has full on finger tracking. So we are not very far away from solving most of those problems.
  - aphextron 9y ago
    TPCast is a huge step forward. No one saw that coming within a year of the major headsets launching. I've definitely got my eye on that stuff. But it's still huge and clunky at the end of the day. It won't be until the major manufacturers integrate this stuff that mainstream adoption hits. I got into VR development with the mindset that the hardware will be ready in 5 years, and when it is the people who stuck with it through the times of disillusionment beyond the hype phase will be in prime position to start doing amazing things at scale. I'm personally waiting for the next gen of headsets now to do more full scale VR work. The current top level hardware is pushed to it's bounds in terms of adoption and it just doesn't make financial sense for developers yet. Until then, mobile is where it's at IMO. The integrated solutions from Samsung and Oculus on the horizon are really exciting. The SteamVR Knuckles I think are a terrible idea. I wish Valve would get past the idea of controllers entirely. Any kind of physical game controller becomes extremely clunky and restrictive in VR. We need perfect finger tracking in the form of a lightweight pair of cloth gloves that you simply slip on like normal. VR allows such a complete paradigm shift in your ability to manipulate the environment that creating a traditional controller mapping inherently limits the way people will think about designing interactions. Rather than moving towards more intuitive actions, developers will be allowed to just fall back on old gameplay cliches of the console era.
mtgx 9y ago
A decade seems like too much. Maybe 3-5 years. You know that expression "wait for the third generation" - I think it applies to VR headsets, too. I've also tried both Oculus Rift and Vive and despite what some may say, 1440p is just not enough. I feel like 4k needs to be the bare minimum resolution, so I don't plan on getting one until it has a 4k resolution. There are also other kinks to solve in the overall technology/experience, so waiting a few more years could pay-off.
- sigstoat 9y ago
  > You know that expression "wait for the third generation" which generation are we on, now? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#History
  - mtgx 9y ago
    Obviously, I don't mean the 90's "VR", but the recent headsets. Since Oculus Rift and Vive are still the first generation, it's generation 1.

Is it safe to say that VR still has another decade (at least) before it gets any kind of wide spread adoption? I was hyped a couple years ago for VR but it feels like its fizzled out.

mrfusion 9y ago

We're in the trough of disillusionment.

hacker_9 9y ago
Indeed, the hype train is always miles ahead of reality.

Strom 9y ago

How do you define widespread adoption? When adding all the current gen VR systems together we're already over 10M units sold.

aphextron 9y ago
Those are really optimistic numbers which must include GearVR and its competitors, which are toys that most people do not consider true VR. Total sales for Rift, PSVR, and Vive are ~1.5 million units combined. All the others (OSVR, chinese clones, et. al.) might add up to 2 million total.
- Strom 9y ago
  The 10M figure does include Gear VR yes. It's less capable than a Vive but ignoring its success while prophecising VR's doom seems weird to me.
- sergiosgc 9y ago
  I don't know where you are getting the 2 million total, but it is wildly off: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42707617 These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units. This is for the worse quarter of the year, post launch hype and off Christmas sales. I'd wager there are 5 million units of "serious" VR units out there. Also of note, something I didn't know: The Vive is outselling Oculus Rift at almost a 2:1 ratio.
  - aphextron 9y ago
    >These are numbers for Q1,2017, placing a total of Rift, PSVR and Vive at ~750k units Combined with the sales from last year, that's almost precisely the 1.5 million units I mentioned sold of the major 3.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
    - sergiosgc 9y ago
      Except we're now in the end of Q2. Vive/Oculus now have four quarters of sales, not two, while PSVR has three. Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units, and you still have to account for both the Christmas and launch factors.
      - aphextron 9y ago
        >Even a linear extrapolation lands in 3 million units That's the thing. You really can't even extrapolate these sales in a linear fashion. There was a massive pent up demand for these devices, and the market is reaching saturation very quickly. I wont argue that perhaps 3 million units of the major 3 headsets have been manufactured and sold to various outlets already. But what matters for developers is the install base of actual users. The latest numbers for SteamVR show an install base of ~220,000 users [0]. The biggest breakout hit game of 2016, Raw Data, has a current ownership number of ~90,000 users, with an average total play time of 2 hours. [1]. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but the numbers simply wont be there to support large scale development of games until the install base increases at least 10x, which I do not see happening with this gen of hardware. A lot of this comes down simply to price. [0] http://steamspy.com/app/250820 http://steamspy.com/app/250820 [1] https://steamspy.com/app/436320 https://steamspy.com/app/436320
43224gg252 9y ago
Basically when new games are made for VR first and traditional games (PS4/XBOX/Nintendo) are more for niche gamers.
- Strom 9y ago
  That's a pretty interesting goal. I haven't thought too much about this, but for that to happen we'd need some high bandwidth brain-computer links. Then those new VR systems with brainlinks would also have to be cheaper than all the existing traditional gaming platforms. Add the gaming system upgrade cycle to that (5-10 years). So I'd wager it won't happen for at least another 30-40 years at least. That said, I can easily see VR system sales being in the billions with just 10 years. It's just that traditional systems will outnumber VR systems for a long time, especially if a VR system also depends on owning a traditional system.

Ajedi32 9y ago

Well, there's certainly not as much hype anymore as there may have been a couple years ago, but I wouldn't really say it's "fizzled out". New games are coming out all the time (e.g. Robo Recall, Echo Arena), new hardware is being developed (version 2 of the lighthouse trackers, Valve's knuckle controllers, new headsets from LG, etc.), and we're finally starting to get to the point where there are a lot of games available for VR that are more than just tech demos. The ecosystem is still very much alive.

empath75 9y ago

I'd say we'd have to wait for generation two before giving up on it. Cheaper, lighter, higher resolution, etc.

ghaff 9y ago

I don't know what the timeframe is but, yeah, it probably needs to get to untethered few hundred dollar with better video quality range. At that point it's pretty much a no-brainer for anyone who doesn't have motion sickness problems with it. At which point, volume drives content like virtual tourism that gets beyond hardcore gaming. AR is probably more interesting in the long-term although that will have to navigate through the glass-hole problem among other things.

jackmott 9y ago

id say five years. the price cuts will help. i will get one (again) when pixel density doubles.

aphextron 9y ago

Yes. I was a hardcore fanboy, bought the DK2, had both Rift and Vive preorders on day one. Spent months making my own games and VR experiments in Unity. However I just sold all of my headsets last month. Theres been a lot of amazing stuff to come out of this generation of VR. But as hard as the software devs try, you simply can't get past the fact that the hardware isn't ready for primetime yet. The clunky controllers, the wires, the sensors. We need full wireless, full FOV, and at least double the pixel density/resolution with a control scheme that uses finger tracking lightweight gloves. Th current gen of tech is really mindblowing at first, and it certainly has incredible potential. But until then VR will unfortunately remain a niche toy like HOTAS controllers.

hkmurakami 9y ago
This is why I'd never want to do a VR company right now (at least not with my own money and shouldering all the risk). Having my fate depend on hardware vendors who don't necessarily have interests aligned with me is not a situation I want to get into!
barkingcat 9y ago
Full wireless would be a great thing to have. The wires as it is now are not ready for mass adoption.
simonhughes22 9y ago
Have you seen the TPCast? That makes the vive wireless, and can already by shipped from China, coming to the US later this year. Intel is also releasing something similar for the vive next year. So that is wireless. LG is bringing out a SteamVR headset later this year with a higher pixel density. And valve just sent out the Kunckles controller to devs, which has full on finger tracking. So we are not very far away from solving most of those problems.
- aphextron 9y ago
  TPCast is a huge step forward. No one saw that coming within a year of the major headsets launching. I've definitely got my eye on that stuff. But it's still huge and clunky at the end of the day. It won't be until the major manufacturers integrate this stuff that mainstream adoption hits. I got into VR development with the mindset that the hardware will be ready in 5 years, and when it is the people who stuck with it through the times of disillusionment beyond the hype phase will be in prime position to start doing amazing things at scale. I'm personally waiting for the next gen of headsets now to do more full scale VR work. The current top level hardware is pushed to it's bounds in terms of adoption and it just doesn't make financial sense for developers yet. Until then, mobile is where it's at IMO. The integrated solutions from Samsung and Oculus on the horizon are really exciting. The SteamVR Knuckles I think are a terrible idea. I wish Valve would get past the idea of controllers entirely. Any kind of physical game controller becomes extremely clunky and restrictive in VR. We need perfect finger tracking in the form of a lightweight pair of cloth gloves that you simply slip on like normal. VR allows such a complete paradigm shift in your ability to manipulate the environment that creating a traditional controller mapping inherently limits the way people will think about designing interactions. Rather than moving towards more intuitive actions, developers will be allowed to just fall back on old gameplay cliches of the console era.

mtgx 9y ago

A decade seems like too much. Maybe 3-5 years. You know that expression "wait for the third generation" - I think it applies to VR headsets, too. I've also tried both Oculus Rift and Vive and despite what some may say, 1440p is just not enough. I feel like 4k needs to be the bare minimum resolution, so I don't plan on getting one until it has a 4k resolution. There are also other kinks to solve in the overall technology/experience, so waiting a few more years could pay-off.

sigstoat 9y ago
> You know that expression "wait for the third generation" which generation are we on, now? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#History
- mtgx 9y ago
  Obviously, I don't mean the 90's "VR", but the recent headsets. Since Oculus Rift and Vive are still the first generation, it's generation 1.