4 ms·

How else would you estimate N?

• ballenf 9y ago
  It just seems circular to say N can be estimated by looking at the frequency of life occurring. If we knew the frequency of life occurring we'd have a lot more information than what N would tell us, wouldn't we? Maybe I'm overthinking this, but I see the problem as akin to someone giving me an uncountably large number of boxes with each having a some chance between zero or more of them containing a treasure of immeasurable value. The value of the treasure approaches infinity, so even a near 0 chance of its existence means that it has a positive ROI. In that vein, it doesn't really matter what the odds are of finding life, it is a justifiable expenditure that will statistically pay for itself. Unless the formula can take down to actually zero the odds of their being discoverable life it doesn't change the calculation. That is, whether the odds are 1e-1000% or 99% we should expend basically the same amount of resources to find it.
  • averagewall 9y ago
    You might be able to estimate those frequencies without actually counting them on other planets. For instance, by measuring the time between when Earth became habitable and when life started. Or by comparing the number of Earth's species that never became intelligent to those that did. It could also tell us what the consequences will be of actually making big discoveries like managing to recreate life from scratch in the lab, find it on Mars, or find life on earth opposite chirality indicating independent orign. If we do (or can't!) find those things, how much will that help us predict that we find other civilizations in the galaxy? I don't think the infinite value argument really works. Finding aliens isn't worth sacrificing everything else for if it's extremely unlikely to succeed. We could just carry on without knowing.