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As I said, countries that are sovereign in their currency and don't hold any foreign-denominated debt cannot suffer debt overhang. Or put another way (to specif
by colorint 9y ago
As I said, countries that are sovereign in their currency and don't hold any foreign-denominated debt cannot suffer debt overhang. Or put another way (to specifically address your link, though I only got four paragraphs), there is no involuntary default risk if we're talking about a country issuing money and then issuing liabilities denominated in that money.
Regarding specific claims in your linked article:
- Bond markets in such countries are subordinate to central banks; the most obvious case is Japan, where a greater-than-200% debt ratio is accompanied by, I believe, negative yields on public debt. Central banks (again, in countries that have nonconvertible sovereign currency) totally control short-term interest rates, and so indirectly control long-term rates. Creditors take the central bank's number and then risk-adjust and discount it for borrowers; for the government the risk is zero, so they just discount it.
- Ricardian equivalence is a stupid model. Have you ever made consumption or investment decisions based on a belief that public deficits will result in higher tax rates at some point in the future? I certainly haven't.
- "Workers organize to protect their jobs," but I guess the anti-union bent says a lot. Nevermind that spending equals income; a falling wage share is a far more plausible explanation for less-than-desirable growth in most situations.
- "savers [...] withdraw their bank deposits" The loanable funds model is not how banking works, but that's a much lengthier discussion. Suffice it to say, it's still the case that central banks set interest rates. I assume this is the reason the author brings this up, because otherwise the question is---they withdraw their savings and do what?
- Again, the only way the US government can default on US Treasury obligations is if Congress explicitly decides to do so. There's no mechanical or functional reason this might happen.
Historically, countries have not been sovereign in their currency. You'd have to be more specific about Argentina, though its biggest debt crisis was because its currency was pegged to the US dollar. Likewise, the current troubles in the Eurozone come from a lack of currency sovereignty. These things are unfortunate, and will probably lead to a dissolution of the EMU at some point, but they have no bearing on the US.