The probability of a bump for a 1K is more like 0.00001f (Source: I'm 1K). Basically they'd have to bump every other non-elite and lower-elite before even getti

The probability of a bump for a 1K is more like 0.00001f (Source: I'm 1K). Basically they'd have to bump every other non-elite and lower-elite before even getting to you. The only time it can happen is if a gate agent screws up (unloads you as a no-show before the 15min mark, or clears you from standby into an already occupied seat (this has happened to me). Also I would say a GS upgrade probability is closer to 0.9f. 1K can be anywhere from 0.1f to 0.8f depending on the routes flown (a consultant flying hub-to-hub around beginning / end of week will be 0.1f; me flying leisure routes mid-week will be 0.8f).