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>"2. Is this climate change? Calving is a natural process and Antarctica is not breaking apart, but climate change can't be ruled out." "Climate change" doesn'

by nonbel 9y ago

>"2. Is this climate change? Calving is a natural process and Antarctica is not breaking apart, but climate change can't be ruled out." "Climate change" doesn't make specific enough predictions about this type of stuff to ever be ruled out, people could just keep coming up with ideas about X indefinitely: Climate Change -> X -> Larsen C rift A more accurate way to put it is that, up until now, all proposed ideas for X have been ruled out (I am basing this all on the comments from the MIDAS team about the ice thickening, etc). At the same time I find it totally implausible that there is zero link between this event (or anything else that happens on earth) and the climate. So "no link" should be taken as shorthand "any influence due to climate change is a negligible factor". Also, it is clear to me from reading the news and comments about this event that many people really, really want this to be linked to climate change. It is to the point that cognitive dissonance ensues when it is pointed out the experts are in disagreement with them. That is unhealthy.

phkahler 9y ago
>> Also, it is clear to me from reading the news and comments about this event that many people really, really want this to be linked to climate change. It is to the point that cognitive dissonance ensues when it is pointed out the experts are in disagreement with them. That is unhealthy. I think it's healthy. The people who experience cognitive dissonance are so personally invested in their belief that they are no longer able to see things objectively. That's not a good place to be in any case.
- nonbel 9y ago
  Go through my comment history for this topic, you will find some of the most bizarre reasons proposed for why the MIDAS team was being quoted as saying this is probably natural and not anything ominous.
- nonbel 9y ago
  Just go through this thread. Almost every poster knows there is some ominous global warming stuff going on here, despite being told otherwise by the experts and being totally ignorant on the topic.
noiv 9y ago
> "Climate change" doesn't make specific enough predictions about this type... Actually it does. In a warming world more frequent calving events are expectable. This part of Antarctica shows quite some positive temperature anomalies. So, asking whether Larsen C would be still intact today without Climate Change the answer is certainly yes.
- nonbel 9y ago
  As I said a month ago when this coverage started, it is very strange how there are so many people (in the media and internet posters) who are so sure about that, when the actual people studying it claim otherwise: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14577296 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14577296 >“Although this is a natural event, and we’re not aware of any link to human-induced climate change, this puts the ice shelf in a very vulnerable position. This is the furthest back that the ice front has been in recorded history. We’re going to be watching very carefully for signs that the rest of the shelf is becoming unstable.” http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/ http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/ >'Andrew Shepherd, professor of Earth Observation at the University of Leeds, agreed. “Everyone loves a good iceberg, and this one is a corker,” he said. “But despite keeping us waiting for so long, I’m pretty sure that Antarctica won’t be shedding a tear when it’s gone because the continent loses plenty of its ice this way each year, and so it’s really just business as usual!”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarctic-iceberg-breaks-free-of-larsen-c-ice-shelf https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarcti... >"And while climate change is accepted to have played a role in the wholesale disintegration of the Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves, Luckman emphasised that there is no evidence that the calving of the giant iceberg is linked to such processes." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarctic-iceberg-breaks-free-of-larsen-c-ice-shelf https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarcti...
  - noiv 9y ago
    Look, I did not answer the irrelevant question whether Larsen C calved because of Climate Change. Attributing single events in remote areas is hard. That's why I answered a different question, the key words are 'today' and 'more frequently', please read the comment carefully again.
_rpd 9y ago
> Climate Change -> X -> Larsen C rift I think if you compare historical rates of iceberg calving to current rates of iceberg calving, you should be able to find some significant quantifiable difference. Although ultimately the important thing is the influence on flow rates of land-based ice.
- nonbel 9y ago
  >"I think if you compare historical rates of iceberg calving to current rates of iceberg calving, you should be able to find some significant quantifiable difference." So? The rates could increase/decrease for many reasons. If all your X mechanism predicts is that the rate should change (or only slightly better, increase/decrease) it isn't going to be distinguishable from any other reason. Edit: It really sounds like you are making the usual NHST error of thinking a significant difference means your theory is true.
stouset 9y ago
Of course there's a link between this event and the climate. Clearly. If Antarctica weren't cold, there would be no ice shelf to begin with. The salient point is that this specific event would have seemingly happened with or without our currently-changing climate. As the iceberg that the shelf extends from flows out toward the ocean, the shelf grows until it reaches a point where forces acting on the floating mass of ice induce part of it to calve away from the rest of the shelf.

by nonbel 9y ago

phkahler 9y ago

>> Also, it is clear to me from reading the news and comments about this event that many people really, really want this to be linked to climate change. It is to the point that cognitive dissonance ensues when it is pointed out the experts are in disagreement with them. That is unhealthy. I think it's healthy. The people who experience cognitive dissonance are so personally invested in their belief that they are no longer able to see things objectively. That's not a good place to be in any case.

nonbel 9y ago
Go through my comment history for this topic, you will find some of the most bizarre reasons proposed for why the MIDAS team was being quoted as saying this is probably natural and not anything ominous.
nonbel 9y ago
Just go through this thread. Almost every poster knows there is some ominous global warming stuff going on here, despite being told otherwise by the experts and being totally ignorant on the topic.

noiv 9y ago

> "Climate change" doesn't make specific enough predictions about this type... Actually it does. In a warming world more frequent calving events are expectable. This part of Antarctica shows quite some positive temperature anomalies. So, asking whether Larsen C would be still intact today without Climate Change the answer is certainly yes.

nonbel 9y ago
As I said a month ago when this coverage started, it is very strange how there are so many people (in the media and internet posters) who are so sure about that, when the actual people studying it claim otherwise: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14577296 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14577296 >“Although this is a natural event, and we’re not aware of any link to human-induced climate change, this puts the ice shelf in a very vulnerable position. This is the furthest back that the ice front has been in recorded history. We’re going to be watching very carefully for signs that the rest of the shelf is becoming unstable.” http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/ http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/ >'Andrew Shepherd, professor of Earth Observation at the University of Leeds, agreed. “Everyone loves a good iceberg, and this one is a corker,” he said. “But despite keeping us waiting for so long, I’m pretty sure that Antarctica won’t be shedding a tear when it’s gone because the continent loses plenty of its ice this way each year, and so it’s really just business as usual!”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarctic-iceberg-breaks-free-of-larsen-c-ice-shelf https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarcti... >"And while climate change is accepted to have played a role in the wholesale disintegration of the Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves, Luckman emphasised that there is no evidence that the calving of the giant iceberg is linked to such processes." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarctic-iceberg-breaks-free-of-larsen-c-ice-shelf https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/giant-antarcti...
- noiv 9y ago
  Look, I did not answer the irrelevant question whether Larsen C calved because of Climate Change. Attributing single events in remote areas is hard. That's why I answered a different question, the key words are 'today' and 'more frequently', please read the comment carefully again.

_rpd 9y ago

> Climate Change -> X -> Larsen C rift I think if you compare historical rates of iceberg calving to current rates of iceberg calving, you should be able to find some significant quantifiable difference. Although ultimately the important thing is the influence on flow rates of land-based ice.

nonbel 9y ago
>"I think if you compare historical rates of iceberg calving to current rates of iceberg calving, you should be able to find some significant quantifiable difference." So? The rates could increase/decrease for many reasons. If all your X mechanism predicts is that the rate should change (or only slightly better, increase/decrease) it isn't going to be distinguishable from any other reason. Edit: It really sounds like you are making the usual NHST error of thinking a significant difference means your theory is true.

stouset 9y ago

Of course there's a link between this event and the climate. Clearly. If Antarctica weren't cold, there would be no ice shelf to begin with. The salient point is that this specific event would have seemingly happened with or without our currently-changing climate. As the iceberg that the shelf extends from flows out toward the ocean, the shelf grows until it reaches a point where forces acting on the floating mass of ice induce part of it to calve away from the rest of the shelf.