5 ms·

Bet you $100 that, in 2035, >10% of the cars on the road are level-4 autonomous or higher, and >90% of new cars sold are level-4 autonomous or higher.

kamaal 9y ago
In the country where I stay(India), this doesn't look possible. Might be possible in the US though. But you don't exactly have a self driving car, if you can only drive in specific conditions.
- King-Aaron 9y ago
  I think this is something which is brushed off too often in these conversations. In the context of US-posters (in many forums I've seen), it seems very likely to them that within 20 or so years, autonomous cars will take over. There's already a big change there happening in consumer driving habits, and I guess that because it's where a lot of the technology is being developed the roll-out is a lot more obvious. Here in places like Australia, I don't forsee it happening on the same scale in the same timeframe. There are different factors here such as the immense distances, inconsistent road surfaces and those bloody Kangaroos which is going to pose real challenges for automakers, as they already have been. I don't think it's going to be that long before learning to drive is purely an optional thing in the same way learning to ride a horse is, but I think it'll be a fair bit longer than people are mentioning here. At least globally.
  - pfisch 9y ago
    Kangaroos are really no different then deer in this context.
    - King-Aaron 9y ago
      They actually are proving to be pretty difficult and different from other fauna obstacles https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-cant-figure-out-kangaroos/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-ca...
      - roel_v 9y ago
        Different yes, but they only started looking into them in 2015. To claim that it would be a blocking factor for getting l3 cars operational in Oz is a stretch.
    - twothamendment 9y ago
      In my parts even the deer aren't the same. The white tail and mule deer don't behave the same. I know I react differently to them. I can see why a kangaroo might cause issues too.
  - twothamendment 9y ago
    There is a large portion of land in the US (area, not population) that is in the same boat as you - minus the kangaroos. Challenges in my area and others: Cell reception is not just poor, it often doesn't exist. GPS on my phone and car drop now and then. Maybe to many trees? Roads are of varying condition and can change anytime. Some you know not to go on in certain weather, etc. Road maps are still wrong. I've fixed the ones I care about on Google. Some roads don't exist, others have addressing issues that are so bad it will put you in the wrong end of the county. I'd enjoy a self driving car, but they are a long ways off in my area and many others. I'm sure it will happen, but it is a whole different world than a city. I don't know that making it work in the middle of nowhere is worse than a city, but it is a different set of problems and manufacturers will of course target the cities first. So to you in the outback (not the Subaru), you aren't alone. Most discussion about what life is like in the US doesn't apply to me either.
  - hjnilsson 9y ago
    US actually has a considerably competitive advantage in that their roads (especially in cities) are so much easier to navigate than in Europe. "Autonomous" vehicles are SO far away from navigating European cities. Picked a few random locations (all two-way roads by the way, often with pedestrian and bicycle traffic). It's probably 30 years out when a car can drive these: * Lausanne, Switzerland: https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.36h,81.38t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sUlFBpZKWczFKoRFCIrttOg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.... * Polignano, Italy https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9h,85.8t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D58.179623%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9... (driven this one myself, and remember thinking that it would be close to impossible for an autonomous vehicle) * Paris, France https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.63h,85.71t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D128.0682%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.6... (one way) * Zagreb, Crotia https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320.75h,82.76t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sU6W_HLzoIrG2lWV7g55mSQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320...
    - Doctor_Fegg 9y ago
      To be fair, Audis don't have the best reputation among (UK) cyclists for navigating considerately even when there's a human behind the wheel.
  - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
    HN is a SV echo chamber. It will be a very long time before self driving cars are practical in parts of the US that do not have comparatively easy conditions for all the reasons you mentioned. Some cities in the southeast that have good automotive infrastructure will see adoption soon after the southwest. Self driving cars won't be typical in Boston or NYC for longer. Those sorts of cities don't have stupid proof markings for traffic flow the way cities that were built out post WWII do so there's a lot more subtle things involved in day to day driving that are hard problems by themselves. Odd intersections, potholes, situations where typical behavior is dependent on traffic volume, snow, etc. Rural areas add another set of unique edge cases. Nobody is gonna pay extra for a car that can't deal with a set of conditions they encounter frequently. Have any Indian companies poured big money into driver-less cars lately?
rimliu 9y ago
Until AI is good enough to drive without working GPS and internet connection "self-driving" is a bit of misnomer.

kamaal 9y ago

In the country where I stay(India), this doesn't look possible. Might be possible in the US though. But you don't exactly have a self driving car, if you can only drive in specific conditions.

King-Aaron 9y ago
I think this is something which is brushed off too often in these conversations. In the context of US-posters (in many forums I've seen), it seems very likely to them that within 20 or so years, autonomous cars will take over. There's already a big change there happening in consumer driving habits, and I guess that because it's where a lot of the technology is being developed the roll-out is a lot more obvious. Here in places like Australia, I don't forsee it happening on the same scale in the same timeframe. There are different factors here such as the immense distances, inconsistent road surfaces and those bloody Kangaroos which is going to pose real challenges for automakers, as they already have been. I don't think it's going to be that long before learning to drive is purely an optional thing in the same way learning to ride a horse is, but I think it'll be a fair bit longer than people are mentioning here. At least globally.
- pfisch 9y ago
  Kangaroos are really no different then deer in this context.
  - King-Aaron 9y ago
    They actually are proving to be pretty difficult and different from other fauna obstacles https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-cant-figure-out-kangaroos/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/06/volvos-driverless-cars-ca...
    - roel_v 9y ago
      Different yes, but they only started looking into them in 2015. To claim that it would be a blocking factor for getting l3 cars operational in Oz is a stretch.
  - twothamendment 9y ago
    In my parts even the deer aren't the same. The white tail and mule deer don't behave the same. I know I react differently to them. I can see why a kangaroo might cause issues too.
- twothamendment 9y ago
  There is a large portion of land in the US (area, not population) that is in the same boat as you - minus the kangaroos. Challenges in my area and others: Cell reception is not just poor, it often doesn't exist. GPS on my phone and car drop now and then. Maybe to many trees? Roads are of varying condition and can change anytime. Some you know not to go on in certain weather, etc. Road maps are still wrong. I've fixed the ones I care about on Google. Some roads don't exist, others have addressing issues that are so bad it will put you in the wrong end of the county. I'd enjoy a self driving car, but they are a long ways off in my area and many others. I'm sure it will happen, but it is a whole different world than a city. I don't know that making it work in the middle of nowhere is worse than a city, but it is a different set of problems and manufacturers will of course target the cities first. So to you in the outback (not the Subaru), you aren't alone. Most discussion about what life is like in the US doesn't apply to me either.
- hjnilsson 9y ago
  US actually has a considerably competitive advantage in that their roads (especially in cities) are so much easier to navigate than in Europe. "Autonomous" vehicles are SO far away from navigating European cities. Picked a few random locations (all two-way roads by the way, often with pedestrian and bicycle traffic). It's probably 30 years out when a car can drive these: * Lausanne, Switzerland: https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.36h,81.38t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sUlFBpZKWczFKoRFCIrttOg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@46.4767732,6.8289361,3a,75y,254.... * Polignano, Italy https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9h,85.8t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DttWTmoeyMt5JIdVcD3wPWw%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D58.179623%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@40.9957993,17.22086,3a,75y,347.9... (driven this one myself, and remember thinking that it would be close to impossible for an autonomous vehicle) * Paris, France https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.63h,85.71t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DY84o6GvcIjn8WFDXWthL7Q%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D128.0682%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@48.8660537,2.4074756,3a,75y,48.6... (one way) * Zagreb, Crotia https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320.75h,82.76t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sU6W_HLzoIrG2lWV7g55mSQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.no/maps/@45.8222709,15.9280256,3a,75y,320...
  - Doctor_Fegg 9y ago
    To be fair, Audis don't have the best reputation among (UK) cyclists for navigating considerately even when there's a human behind the wheel.
- dsfyu404ed 9y ago
  HN is a SV echo chamber. It will be a very long time before self driving cars are practical in parts of the US that do not have comparatively easy conditions for all the reasons you mentioned. Some cities in the southeast that have good automotive infrastructure will see adoption soon after the southwest. Self driving cars won't be typical in Boston or NYC for longer. Those sorts of cities don't have stupid proof markings for traffic flow the way cities that were built out post WWII do so there's a lot more subtle things involved in day to day driving that are hard problems by themselves. Odd intersections, potholes, situations where typical behavior is dependent on traffic volume, snow, etc. Rural areas add another set of unique edge cases. Nobody is gonna pay extra for a car that can't deal with a set of conditions they encounter frequently. Have any Indian companies poured big money into driver-less cars lately?

rimliu 9y ago

Until AI is good enough to drive without working GPS and internet connection "self-driving" is a bit of misnomer.