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If you calculate power usage for the global hash rate as if it were produced by, on average, 2-generation old mining hardware @0.51 W/Gh, you end up with 0.017%
by elif 9y ago
If you calculate power usage for the global hash rate as if it were produced by, on average, 2-generation old mining hardware @0.51 W/Gh, you end up with 0.017% of average global electricity production (3x more than last year).
If you extrapolate an unconstrained tripling of production every year, you will (to my surprise) arrive at your 10% estimate.
However, if we assume the last year's additional capacity was on modern hardware (5x more efficient), miners are presently using 0.0005% of global production, and after 10 years of unconstrained annual tripling would only account for 0.295%
Further advancements in efficiency or a slowing of the growth rate from 300% annually seem like likely diminishing factors.
- sobani 9y agoIn the end it doesn't matter how efficient the mining ends up being. All that matters is the price of electricity. Assuming efficiency gains level out and thus the cycle of buying new hardware to keep up approaches infinity length, the only major cost left is electricity use. So in that case the energy used is dependent on (transaction fees * bitcoin price) / (energy price) So to get a % of all energy usage, you need to know the future energy usage, the future energy price, the future bitcoin price and the future amount that will be spend on transaction fees. I'm sure the future energy usage and price have good forecasts available. Then you're left with the bitcoin price and fees (both which are dependent on popularity (which in turn is dependent on price and fees)), but good luck forecasting that.