I think luck and timing make sense from a VC point of view, but when you are on the other side, it feels slightly different: as a founder, you need to have a vi

I think luck and timing make sense from a VC point of view, but when you are on the other side, it feels slightly different: as a founder, you need to have a vision about your future consumers within 5 to 10 years, even before you are laying down the first brick... It needs to be so obvious and in your face that you can sell it effortlessly to others (including VC's and your prospects). You start from a gazillion ideas and hunches, and after a while some will keep emerging until they will evolve into a vision. You pick some of those ideas and try to assess them, to figure out if you are stuck in your own bubble, or are really on to something. To me it's a little bit like Thoughtworks' tech radar: adopt, trial, assess and hold. Once you've made your choice, one of the most important things IME is that you need to be able to adapt that vision based on customer feedback. By the time you're in that phase, it might look like it's sheer luck and timing, but I honestly believe that all the grunt work and preparation you did increase the odds to succeed big-time...